Brazil’s Presidential Elections Has PredictIt Bettors Worried

On the political betting site PredictIt, people are bracing themselves for a possible coup in the event that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro loses his bid for re-election.

In Brazil, a candidate needs to achieve a majority of over 50% of the votes to win a presidential election. And since the weekend’s tally for the first round of votes did not see any of the candidates reaching a majority, there will be a second round on October 30. The run-offs will feature a face-off between left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Inácio da Silva, who’s more commonly known as Lula, and incumbent Bolsonaro. 

The first round results, which had over 99% of the votes counted by Sunday evening, showed Lula getting a small lead against Bolsonaro at 48.4% versus 43.2%.

Lula’s lead was close but not enough to secure an early win. But the former president does not seem to mind, telling reporters in Sao Paolo on Sunday that he’s confident about the run-off elections at the end of the month.

“It will be important because we will have the chance to do a face-to-face debate with the current president to know if he will keep on telling lies,” he said when asked about the second round. 

“We can compare the Brazil he built and the Brazil we built,” he said. “Tomorrow the campaign starts.”

It’s understandable why this particular PredictIt bettor is worried, it is Bolsonaro, after all. 

Called the Brazilian Donald Trump, Bolsonaro may just copy the former US president’s attempts at keeping himself in power. Other than planting the seeds of doubt about the voting process, he has also instructed his followers to “go to war” if Lula “steals” the election.

The incumbent may be as unpopular as he is deluded. Contrary to RZ’s concern on PredictIt, analysts say that Bolsonaro may not have enough military support to launch a coup. What they know is he’ll do all he can to avoid becoming the first incumbent to not be re-elected since 1988, when the country entered its modern democracy.

Information for this briefing was found via Twitter, The Guardian, the New York Times, Vox, Reuters, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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