Canaccord: Aphria Estimated To Post 16% Increase In Recreational Sales In Q1 2021

This morning, Canaccord Genuity’s analyst Matt Bottomley released the firms fiscal first-quarter forecasts for Aphria Inc (TSX: APHA) (NASDAQ: APHA). They also reiterated their C$10 12-month price target and a speculative buy recommendation.

Bottomley’s headlines the note with “Expecting healthy Cdn recreational revenue growth and improved profitability.” Bottomley expects the same robust growth that Aphria reported in the previous quarter. Last quarter Aphria posted a ~27% quarter over quarter increase in their Canadian recreational sales. Bottomley believes that with two times the amount of stores opened and operating in Ontario, which Aphria has a #1 market share, it will be the primary driver in top-line success.

Bottomley further believes that recreational sales in this fiscal quarter will, “represent the company’s largest growth driver for the quarter after several notable market share gains in the prior period.” He forecasts a 20-25% increase in total consumption for Canadian recreational sales, and estimates that Aphria will achieve 16% quarter over quarter growth, which means Aphria’s gross recreational revenue is pegged at an estimated C$65.9 million.

Onto Aphria’s medical arm of the company, Bottomley’s says that fewer patients are booking appointments to renew prescriptions because of COVID-19. He expects medical revenue to be flat quarter over quarter and forecast C$8.6 million as the medical segment’s revenue.

Bottomley expects Aphria’s international revenue to drop by 2% this quarter, down to C$97.1 million as a result of seasonality.

Onto net revenues and gross margin, Bottomley estimates Aphria to have C$159 million in total net revenues, or up a modest 4.5% quarter over quarter. He says, “With some reliance on third-party purchased inputs in the prior period, we estimate that Aphria will see a modest ~50bp improvement in its consolidated adj. gross margin to 26.8% in FQ1/21, or ~C$42.6M.”

Lastly, Bottomley expects adjusted EBITDA to be healthy and come in at C$12.8 million, which is almost a 50% increase quarter over quarter. He believes that this is the case because of anticipated margins being higher and better OpEx spending.

Bottomley ends the note by saying, “the company should remain one of the only profitable LPs among market share leaders at this time.”

Aphria is scheduled to release first quarter financial results on October 15, 2020.

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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