Last week, Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K) announced the suspension of its Russian operations. The company said that it will be suspending all its activities at its Udinsk development project as well as its operating at its Kupol mine.
As we previously highlighted, the decision by Kinross to suspend operations at its Kupol mine will potentially impact the business in a large way. As the Kupol mine has the highest gross margins and is the second-largest contributor to the company’s metal sales, which was $862.8 million in 2021.
A number of analysts have lowered their 12-month price target on Kinross Gold, bringing the 12-month average price target down to C$10.59 from C$12.74 a month ago. Kinross Gold currently has 13 analysts covering the stock, 3 have strong buy ratings, 8 have buy ratings, and 2 analysts have hold ratings. The street high sits at C$14 which represents a 109% increase to the current stock price.
In Canaccord’s note, they reiterate their buy rating but lower their 12-month price target from C$10.50 to C$9.50, as they write, “Given the escalation of events in Ukraine over the past few weeks and escalating sanctions, the announcement doesn’t come as a surprise to us.”
Canaccord expects Kinross’s shares to continue to take a hit, even as the company is trading at the largest discount to other senior peers. They reiterate their bullishness by stating, “we see potential longer-term upside from an improved geopolitical risk profile.”
They are modeling that there will be a 15% hit to the company’s production and cash flow as they remove both Kupol and Udinsk from their estimates. They had modeled for production to start at Udinsk in 2026, which would basically replace all the production at Kupol, which is expected to close in 2027. They model that the companies cash flow will drop 15%, while they say that the company will free up $700 million which was earmarked for Udinsk CAPEX.
On this note, Canaccord has lowered their total NAV by 7%, this comes in the form of a 50% discount to Kupol and Udinsk. They now value these two assets together at $711 million, down from $1.61 billion. They do believe that there is a possibility for Kinross to sell its interest in Russia to another Russian-based mining company but warn that if this happens it wouldn’t be anytime soon and is heavily reliant on the level of sanctions in place.
Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
