Canada 2040: 9 In 10 Stay Trapped In The Class They’re Born Into
A newly surfaced report from Policy Horizons Canada, an internal think tank under the federal government, outlines a grim potential future for the country—one where the foundational promise of social mobility is all but dead.
The document, released in January, imagines a Canada in 2040 where upward mobility has become “almost unheard of,” and a majority of citizens remain trapped in the socioeconomic status they were born into.
“Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts,” the report states. In this vision, Canada slides into a soft aristocracy where intergenerational wealth—not merit—determines one’s prospects.
The report, part of a series examining plausible futures, stresses that this scenario is not a forecast, but a warning: a plausible outcome if structural trends continue unaddressed.
Education, Housing, and AI
Post-secondary education, once viewed as a ladder to success, is depicted in the 2040 scenario as a costly, elitist institution detached from labor market needs.
“Relatively long program timelines mean significant opportunity costs,” it notes. The report warns that the system may become a stranded asset, with public support and enrollment declining.
The housing crisis is also projected to deepen. Homeownership, already a fading dream for many, is said to be “not a realistic goal.” Those who inherit property gain advantages that compound over time, while renters face climbing costs and shrinking mobility.
Meanwhile, AI is described as a great equalizer—only in the sense that it flattens opportunity. As automation proliferates, the value of human labor diminishes. The best AI assistants, available only to the wealthy, further entrench inequality. Gig work and side hustles become the norm—not to get ahead, but to survive.
Social Division, Mental Erosion, and Rejection of Institutions
The Canada of 2040 is deeply siloed—socially and economically. Class lines harden, both online and off. From algorithm-filtered dating apps to gated metaverses, citizens increasingly exist in echo chambers.
This fragmentation feeds widespread apathy, especially among youth. Aspirations clash with economic reality, fueling mental health crises and diminished civic engagement.
“Fewer people may have the drive to build and innovate,” the report warns.
The potential economic fallout is stark. As consumption declines, the consumer economy contracts. Wealth becomes concentrated in aging elites, who influence which industries thrive. Workers, frustrated and disillusioned, may flee to more promising jurisdictions—draining Canada’s talent pool and undermining its ability to fund aging populations.
Governments could lose relevance as grassroots alternatives—cooperatives, barter networks, informal subsistence economies—rise in response. Regulatory authority may weaken if citizens no longer believe in the legitimacy of institutions.
Perhaps most concerning, the report anticipates a growing rejection of the systems seen to have failed them: from the state itself, to capitalism, to specific social groups. Civil disobedience, tax evasion, and scapegoating could become common responses.
Although the government has emphasized that the scenario “does not necessarily represent the views” of the state, the fact that it originated from within a federal strategic office—reporting through Employment and Social Development Canada—gives the warning unusual weight.
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