Codelco has increased its loss estimate from the deadly El Teniente mine collapse to 48,000 metric tons of copper production and approximately $500 million in lost EBITDA this year, company chairman Máximo Pacheco said ahead of LME Week.
The revised figures represent a 45% increase from the miner’s previous estimate following the July disaster at the world’s largest underground copper mine.
Despite the setback, Pacheco told reporters the state-owned company still expects to slightly increase overall production in 2025. Output from January through September exceeded the prior year’s equivalent period by 2%.
Speaking at the FT Live Metals and Mining Summit on October 10, Pacheco described the incident as “a new phenomenon” with devastating consequences.
According to preliminary findings, the rock burst “overwhelmed” existing fortification systems at the mine. The most probable cause, Pacheco said, was “a process of vertical unloading due to geometric changes and cavity interaction in the north-west of the deposit.”
The technical explanation points to structural weakening from interconnected cavities that developed over time in the mine’s 4,500-kilometer tunnel network. Internal assessments suggest the seismic event resulted from mining operations rather than natural tectonic activity, with the mine’s panel-caving extraction method significantly increasing stress within the ore body.
The production loss has contributed to global copper supply constraints. Copper prices reached $11,000 per metric ton this week, approaching the record highs set in 2024.
The mine, which normally produces around 400,000 tons annually, now expects output of 316,000 tons this year. El Teniente accounts for roughly 25% of Codelco’s total copper output.
Chilean authorities authorized a phased restart of some underground operations in August, though Codelco will keep the Andesita unit where the collapse occurred closed until investigators complete their work.
Codelco expects to finalize the investigation by the end of 2025. The company implements safety enhancements across eight critical areas including improved monitoring systems and terrain studies to prevent similar incidents.
The Andesita unit will remain closed until the investigation concludes.
A magnitude 4.2 seismic event triggered a collapse at the mine’s Andesita section on July 31, killing six workers and injuring nine others. Five miners became trapped beneath the debris. Recovery crews found their bodies during a multi-day search operation. A sixth worker died at the time of the collapse.
Over 100 rescue workers participated in the recovery operation, including specialists who took part in Chile’s renowned 2010 Copiapó mine rescue.
El Teniente, operational since 1905 and located 100 kilometers south of Santiago, employs approximately 5,000 workers. Chile’s worst mining disaster also occurred at this mine in 1945, when the “Smoke Tragedy” killed 355 miners in a fire.
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