Conservative Party support has reached 43.7% following Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation, while economic concerns among Canadians have hit their highest level in four years, according to the latest Nanos weekly tracking poll.
The survey, released December 24, shows the Conservatives holding a commanding lead over the Liberals, who stand at 23.8%, followed by the NDP at 18.2%. The results mark a significant shift in the Canadian political landscape as 2024 draws to a close.
“Conservative support hits 44% in the wake of the Freeland resignation. Worry about jobs and the economy hits a high not seen since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research.
The survey reveals a dramatic surge in economic concerns among Canadians, with 20.6% citing jobs and the economy as their primary concern, up from 15.1% four weeks earlier. Inflation worries also increased significantly, rising from 8.2% to 12.0%.
Meanwhile, other traditional voter concerns have seen declining importance. Healthcare concerns dropped by nearly half, from 12.7% to 6.6%, while housing affordability fell from 9.0% to 6.0%. Environmental concerns also decreased from 8.3% to 5.4%.
In leadership preferences, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre leads as preferred Prime Minister at 37.2%, followed by Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at 20.0% and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 15.3%.
The Bloc Québécois maintains 6.8% support nationally, while the Green Party and People’s Party of Canada trail at 4.5% and 2.6% respectively.
The poll is based on a four-week rolling average of random telephone interviews with 1,032 Canadians ending December 20, 2024, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
But wait there’s more…
According to seat projections from 338Canada, a polling aggregation website, the current polling numbers could translate into a dramatic shift in Parliament.
The site projects the Conservatives would win approximately 232 seats (with a range of 207-254) if an election were held now, far exceeding the 170 seats needed for a majority government. The Liberal Party would see a significant decline to about 39 seats (21-57 range), falling into third place, while the NDP is projected to win around 25 seats (15-42 range).
This would be the first time in a decade that the Liberals have polled in third place, with projections suggesting the Bloc Québécois could potentially form the Official Opposition.
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