The Conservative Party has surged ahead of the Liberals, opening up a substantial 20-point lead in the latest national poll by Abacus Data. The survey, conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 3 to 9, 2024, shows the Conservatives commanding 44% of the decided vote, compared to just 24% for the Liberals.
This represents the largest lead the Conservatives have ever held over their rivals in Abacus’s tracking, and the first time the party’s national vote share has reached 44%. The NDP, meanwhile, saw its support decline to 17%, its lowest result since September 2022.
The Conservatives’ gains were seen across all age groups and both genders. They led the Liberals by 19 points among 18-29-year-olds, 20 points among 30-44-year-olds, 23 points among 45-59-year-olds, and 18 points among those 60 and over. The party also maintained its advantage with both men and women.
Regionally, the Conservatives held a 25-point lead in British Columbia, a 19-point edge in Ontario, and an 18-point advantage in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the race remains tight, with the Liberals, Bloc Québécois, and Conservatives in a statistical tie.
When asked if they would consider voting for the various parties, 53% said they were open to supporting the Conservatives, compared to 40% for the Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives also boasted the highest level of voter enthusiasm, with 70% of their supporters saying they would definitely cast a ballot.
The results spell bad news for the Liberals, as the survey comes on the heels of a range of new policy initiatives including a plan to develop a National School Food Program, and a new $1.5 billion “Canada Rental Protection Fund” that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described as a crucial step to preserve affordable rent prices across the country. Canadians, particularly those in the younger age segment, appear unmoved by the Liberal government’s efforts to win their support.
“The problem may not be one of policy, but of leadership,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said in the report. “There are a lot of people who can like a policy but still not like the government.”
The survey also comes right after the April 1 implementation of the carbon price increase. Coletto notes that while it has “not yet had any noticeable impact on Liberal support but if anything, may have helped the Conservatives.” However, Coletto notes that there needs to be a few more weeks of data to know the impact for sure.
What’s clear is that the Conservatives are holding a commanding lead as the Liberals fail to gain traction, indicating a potentially decisive election in the months ahead, especially as the government continues to face scandal after scandal as Canadians struggle with housing and cost of living.
Information for this story was found via Abacus Data, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
