A real estate analyst has raised alarm bells about an impending housing market crash in the Southern United States. Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, points to several indicators suggesting that a housing bubble in the region is on the verge of bursting.
According to Gerli, the number of new homes for sale in Southern states such as Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas has reached an unprecedented level of nearly 300,000 units. This figure surpasses even the previous peak observed in August 2006, just before the last major housing market crash.
The current situation stems from a surge in home construction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Builders ramped up production in response to increased demand as Americans migrated south in search of more affordable housing and larger living spaces. This trend was facilitated by the rise of remote work options.
However, Gerli notes that this demand is now waning, leaving a glut of homes on the market. He attributes the bubble’s formation to rampant speculation by home builders and investors over the past three to four years, which pushed prices beyond what local buyers can afford.
The analyst warns that the bubble is now slowly deflating and could burst more rapidly if economic conditions deteriorate. “Now that bubble is – slowly – popping. And it could start to pop pretty fast if a recession is thrown into the mix,” Gerli said on X.
Interestingly, Gerli observes that this potential crisis appears to be largely confined to the South. He points out that the Northeast and Midwest regions are not facing similar challenges, as home building and speculative activity in these areas have remained at lower levels.
Prices in these regions are also less overvalued, and inventory is much lower, suggesting they may be better positioned to weather any market corrections.
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