India’s natural gas consumption is projected to increase by nearly 60% by 2030, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. The forecast suggests consumption will reach 103 billion cubic meters annually by 2030, up from 65 bcm in 2023.
The IEA analysis, based on extensive consultations with Indian stakeholders, indicates that the country has reached an inflection point in its gas market development. Three major factors are driving this growth: rapid expansion of gas infrastructure, rebounds in domestic production, and expected easing of global market conditions.
The city gas distribution sector is anticipated to lead this expansion, supported by growth in compressed natural gas infrastructure and cost advantages over liquid fuels for small industrial users. Heavy manufacturing sectors, particularly iron and steel production, are also expected to contribute significantly to demand growth.
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The report highlights that India’s domestic gas production, which currently meets 50% of demand, is expected to see only moderate growth through 2030. While production reached 35 bcm in 2023, it is projected to increase to just under 38 bcm by 2030, primarily driven by coal bed methane and discovered small fields.
To bridge this supply gap, India’s LNG imports are set to more than double between 2023 and 2030. The country, currently the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer, is expected to see its LNG demand grow to 64 bcm annually by 2030.
The IEA suggests that targeted strategies and policy interventions could boost gas consumption even further, potentially reaching 120 bcm annually by 2030. This accelerated growth could come from increased utilization of gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, and more rapid expansion of city gas infrastructure.
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