Latest polls, including Trudeau government’s own, show that the ruling Liberal Party is steadily losing steam to the Conservative Party despite the next election being roughly two years away.
The prediction model from 338Canada now predicts that Conservatives will win 205 seats in the House in the next election, up from the last week’s polling of 194 seats and a huge jump from their current 117 seats. Meanwhile, Liberals are expected to retain only 81 seats in the latest poll, down from 90 seats in last week’s poll and a big decline from the current 158 seats they have.
A comprehensive set of internal government polls, recently obtained by Global News, also shows a similar trend. These polls, conducted weekly by the Privy Council Office from January to June, reveal a government that has garnered disapproval from a substantial majority of respondents for its handling of critical matters such as the economy, climate change, Indigenous affairs, and crime.
Curiously, when it comes to the Canada-U.S. relationship, the government managed to earn a modest majority of approval, with 51% of respondents expressing confidence in its management of this issue. However, over the initial six months, most of the approximately 24,000 polled Canadians consistently voiced their belief that the Trudeau government was on the wrong track.
It’s worth noting that this polling program, overseen by the Privy Council Office, involves rigorous vetting of each question by the Prime Minister’s director of research. The results carry significant weight and influence government policy, guiding the Prime Minister, top advisors, cabinet members, and deputy ministers.
The persistent trend of Canadians perceiving the government as heading in the wrong direction during the first half of the year prompted a cabinet shuffle in July. The Prime Minister and his inner circle sought to recalibrate their focus and agenda during this time. Leading this reset was Nova Scotia’s Sean Fraser, a standout performer in the cabinet, who assumed the role of Minister for Housing and Infrastructure.
The Privy Council Office’s polling program divides the nation into six geographical regions, with a consistent trend across all but one: the majority believed the government was on the wrong path rather than the right. Quebec emerged as the exception, where more respondents believed the government was on the right track, a ray of hope for the Liberals, given Quebec’s pivotal role in recent elections.
In the lead-up to the July cabinet reshuffle, Trudeau’s team observed the gap between “wrong track” and “right track” widening in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. These regions hold great importance for the government’s electoral success, making this trend a matter of concern. It’s essential to note that polling financed with public funds, like the PCO polling program, cannot inquire about voter preferences or individual politicians’ approval ratings.
The data also reveals regional variations in the issue that Canadians consider most critical for the government to address. Once again, Quebec stands out with markedly different preferences compared to the rest of the country. For instance, in June, 21.5% of Quebecers emphasized “environment and climate change” as the issue requiring the most attention from the Canadian government, while only 5.4% of Albertans shared this sentiment.
Conversely, respondents in other regions assigned higher priorities to housing costs, healthcare, or inflation. Quebecers exhibited the least interest in housing costs, cost of living, and inflation. Nevertheless, this June result aligns with previous polls since January, where Quebecers consistently prioritized climate change, whereas other regions most frequently identified healthcare or cost of living as their top concerns.
The key question, “Which one issue should receive the most attention from the government of Canada?” commences each weekly polling wave and allows open-ended responses. As a result, respondents have the freedom to express any concern they wish to the live-agent pollster. For example, among the 4,000 individuals polled in June, 2.3% highlighted taxes, 0.3% mentioned “honesty/keeping promises,” and 0.2% referenced “gun control,” with 1.7% indicating that “ousting Trudeau from power” was the top issue requiring attention from the Trudeau government.
In typical months, this open-ended question generates around 70 different responses. Yet, from January to June, the six most common answers remained consistent across all regions: affordable housing, cost of living, the economy, environment and climate change, healthcare, and inflation.
During the first six months of the year, healthcare consistently ranked as the most pressing concern in every region, although its prominence diminished by June. Conversely, affordable housing and environmental and climate change issues gained prominence in the latter half of the first six months of the year.
This evolving trend appears to inform the Trudeau government’s strategy after the cabinet reshuffle and into the early fall. The government adopted a more assertive stance, particularly through Minister Sean Fraser, to address housing issues, while continuing to uphold climate change policies, with Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault remaining in his position.
Information for this briefing was found via Global News and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
