As the fall season approaches, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future hangs in the balance, with only 20 months remaining until the next general election. The Liberal Party’s prospects of retaining power could depend on how public opinion evolves in the coming months.
Recent polling data from various firms, including Pallas Data, Abacus Data, and Mainstreet Research, has not been favorable for the Liberals. The polls have consistently shown the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, enjoying substantial national leads ranging from 9 to 13 points.
The data reveal a notable shift in the 338Canada polling average. While Liberal support had been hovering around the 30% mark, recent polls show the party’s numbers dipping even lower, often falling below their 2021 election results of 33%. In contrast, the Conservatives have managed to improve their standing, particularly in Atlantic Canada and Ontario.
The shift is especially evident in Ontario, where the Conservative Party’s average support has risen by 5 points compared to the 2021 election, reaching the 40% mark. Meanwhile, Liberal support in the province has slid to 33%, a decrease of 6 points from their 2021 results. This swing could potentially affect the outcome of more than 30 seats in Ontario alone.
For the first time in years, the weekly 338Canada projections suggest that the Conservative Party is in a position to secure a majority in the upcoming election. The latest projections show the Conservatives leading in 178 electoral districts, while the Liberals are projected to lead in only 105. The Bloc Québécois, NDP, and Greens are expected to maintain levels close to their 2021 results.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s personal approval ratings have also taken a hit. Recent figures from Abacus Data indicate that a significant portion of respondents (56%) believe he should step down, while only 27% support his running for re-election. Even among 2021 Liberal voters, a sizable 28% feel he should step down, signaling potential challenges within his own base.
Although it’s premature to draw definitive conclusions based on mid-mandate summer polling, these trends raise questions about the Liberals’ ability to maintain their position in power. The combination of global uncertainties, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, along with domestic issues like mismanagement and communication problems, could be contributing factors to the Liberal Party’s declining popularity.
Information for this story was found via 338Canada, Abacus Data, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.