A polling operation with just 21 followers on X managed to inject fabricated numbers into at least three active US political races, reach the campaign of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, and generate tens of thousands of social-media engagements before admitting that its polling was not real.
Median Strategies now says it has ended the project and withdrawn every polling release it published. The group described itself as a short-term experiment testing how purported polling could spread through the political information system without independent verification.
Its operators remain unidentified. It has deleted its X posts and its website has seemingly been taken down, as well.
The most consequential release targeted the Nov. 3 Los Angeles mayoral runoff between Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman.
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Los Angeles Times reported that Median’s three-page document claimed to be based on 560 likely Los Angeles voters surveyed from July 30 through Aug. 5, with a 4.1% margin of error. It put Bass at 50.18%, Raman at 38.39%, and undecided voters at 11.43%, giving Bass an 11.79-point advantage.
The fabricated analysis went further. It claimed 16% of respondents had voted for former mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt and that roughly 85% of those voters planned to support Bass.
That finding became the premise of a California Post story arguing that Pratt’s voters could become decisive in the runoff. Bass then cited Median Strategies from her campaign account while celebrating the purported momentum. She later deleted the post.
Pratt also shared the California Post article. By Monday, his post had accumulated roughly 5,000 reposts and 38,000 likes, according to NOTUS. Median Strategies itself had only 21 X followers at the time.
After repeated inquiries from the Los Angeles Times, Median acknowledged that the survey was fake. Bass’ campaign said the poll had been reported by a news outlet and called for any bad-faith attempt to influence an election to be “investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”
Wisconsin came first
Median had already entered another high-profile election narrative. A purported Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary poll circulated under the firm’s name showing state Rep. Francesca Hong at 46.3% and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 22.6%, a 23.7-point gap.
Crowley instead won the Aug. 11 primary by roughly half a percentage point, 39.8% to Hong’s 39.3%.
The fabricated survey, however, does not explain the broader Wisconsin polling miss. Marquette Law School’s final survey, conducted July 22 through 27, placed Hong at 38%, Crowley at 7%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 16%, and undecided voters at 34%. Barnes withdrew after the survey was completed, while Crowley consolidated late support.
Median initially responded to the Wisconsin result as though it had simply produced a bad poll, posting that it had gotten the state wrong “by quite a margin.” Only later did it disclose that its polling operation itself was fabricated.
Then, Nevada
Median-branded numbers also circulated in Nevada’s gubernatorial race, showing incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo at 51% and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford at 46% in a purported Aug. 7 to Aug. 11 survey. Election analyst Garrett Archer later identified the Median Strategies Nevada release as bogus.
Median’s subsequent statement removes any remaining ambiguity about the status of that release. The group says all of its previously published polling should not be considered genuine.
The Los Angeles document contained only a one-sentence methodology section, according to NOTUS. By comparison, the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s voluntary transparency standards call for public surveys to disclose information including survey mode, sampling and recruitment methods, weighting, question wording, population studied, and sample size.
Median’s website, before it was taken down, also claimed that no candidate, campaign, political party, PAC, media organization, or other outside entity funded, commissioned, or directed the project, and that nobody involved received compensation. TheWrap reported that Median did not answer additional questions about its origins.
