Friday, October 24, 2025

Latest

RBC Report Says Immigration Surge Is Disguising Recession

If it feels like a recession but the numbers say it’s not, it’s likely because the numbers are blown out of proportion by the recent surge in immigration, according to a recent analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada (TSE: RY). Despite avoiding a technical recession, the country is experiencing a decline in per capita output and rising unemployment rates.

According to the report, Canada’s economy has continued to expand, largely due to an unprecedented surge in population. Since mid-2022, the country has welcomed 2.1 million new consumers, representing a 6% population increase. This influx has bolstered overall economic figures, preventing consecutive GDP declines that typically define a recession.

The report highlights some concerning trends beneath the surface. Real per capita GDP has fallen in six of the past seven quarters, now sitting 3.1% below 2019 levels. Household spending per person, adjusted for inflation, is down 2.6% from its post-pandemic peak and 2% lower than pre-pandemic figures.

The unemployment rate has also seen a notable uptick, rising by 1.6 percentage points. While this increase is smaller than those observed in major recessions, it is historically significant. RBC notes that Canada has not experienced such a rise in unemployment without an accompanying recession since the 1970s.

The report attributes these challenges to the lingering effects of high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes implemented by the Bank of Canada in 2022-2023. These factors have eroded household purchasing power and dampened consumer demand.

RBC anticipates some relief as the Bank of Canada begins to ease monetary policy. The bank has already cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with RBC forecasting three additional cuts by year-end. This easing cycle is expected to alleviate pressure on households, particularly those with variable-rate mortgages and credit market debt.

While the economic outlook remains challenging in the short term, RBC projects a return to positive per capita growth in the latter half of 2025. This recovery hinges on the gradual fading of interest rate headwinds and the assumption that labor market conditions do not significantly deteriorate.


Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Video Articles

When 4% of Global Copper Disappears Overnight | David Gower – Emerita Resources

Mining M&A: Gold X2 Acquires Kesselrun Resources

They Said Oil Was Dead. They Were Wrong. | Michael Judson – Record Resources

Recommended

Steadright Enters MOU To Acquire Historic Goundafa Polymetallic Mine In Morocco

Military Seizes Power in Madagascar After President Flees

Related News

Peter Schiff: US Economy Headed for an ‘Inflationary Depression’

Love him or hate him, but stock broker and gold proponent Peter Schiff does make...

Sunday, July 31, 2022, 05:10:00 PM

The Recession of 2022: GDP Dips 0.9%, Second Consecutive Quarterly Decline

Despite the Biden administration’s enduring efforts to change the definition of a recession and Jerome...

Thursday, July 28, 2022, 10:17:51 AM

Ford to Cut 3,000 Jobs Ahead of Potential Recession

Ford is embarking on a restructuring process that will cut about 3,000 employees from its...

Monday, August 22, 2022, 03:14:21 PM

The Growing Cost of Mass Immigration on Canadians

Canada, long celebrated for its welcoming stance towards immigrants, now finds itself at a crossroads...

Saturday, August 10, 2024, 08:43:29 AM

Canada Sees Record-High Surge of Asylum Claims Filed by International Students

Nearly 14,000 international students in Canada filed asylum claims in the first nine months of...

Thursday, November 21, 2024, 02:09:00 PM