Yesterday Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported better-than-expected vehicle production and delivery results for 3Q 2023. The company manufactured 16,304 electric pickup trucks and SUVs in the quarter, up 16.5% from 2Q 2023 levels.
Furthermore, Rivian’s 3Q 2023 deliveries increased at a much faster 23.1% sequential pace, reaching 15,564 units versus 12,640 in 2Q 2023. The number of vehicles delivered handily beat the Wall Street consensus delivery estimate of 14,740.
Rivian continues to forecast it will manufacture about 52,000 vehicles in 2023; management does not provide an annual delivery projection. For the twelve months ended September 30, 2023, the company has produced 49,711 electric vehicles (EVs) and delivered 44,204 units.
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC. — Selected Financial Statistics
| (in millions of US dollars, except vehicles produced and delivered and revenue per vehicle delivered) | Full-Year 2023 Guidance | Twelve Months Ended 6-30-23 (A) | 3Q 2023 | 2Q 2023 | 1Q 2023 |
| Number of Vehicles Produced | 52,000 | 49,711 | 16,304 | 13,992 | 9,395 |
| Number of Vehicles Delivered | 44,204 | 15,564 | 12,640 | 7,946 | |
| Ratio of Vehicles Delivered to Produced | 88.9% | 95.5% | 90.3% | 84.6% | |
| Revenue (B) | $2,981 | $1,121 | $661 | ||
| Revenue Per Vehicle Delivered | $67,437 | $88,687 | $83,187 | ||
| Operating Income | ($6,237) | ($1,285) | ($1,433) | ||
| Operating Cash Flow | ($5,696) | ($1,361) | ($1,521) | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | ($4,200) | ($4,711) | ($881) | ($1,062) | |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1,700) | ($1,130) | ($255) | ($283) | |
| Total Stock-Based Compensation | $792 | $181 | $183 | ||
| Cash and Short-Term Investments – Period End | $10,202 | $10,202 | $11,244 | ||
| Debt and Convertible Preferred – Period End | $3,347 | $3,347 | $3,308 | ||
| Shares Outstanding (millions) – Period End | 946 | 946 | 939 |
(B) 2Q 2023 revenue includes $34 million from the sale of regulatory credits.
Nearly as important as Rivian’s improved 3Q 2023 raw production/delivery statistics is the tightening ratio of the number of vehicles delivered as a percentage of EVs produced. In the just-completed quarter, Rivian delivered 95.5% of the vehicles it manufactured, markedly and sequentially higher than the 90.3%, 84.6%, and 80.4% ratios achieved in 2Q 2023, 1Q 2023, and 4Q 2023, respectively. In comparison, Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID), perhaps the highest profile North American start-up EV manufacturer, delivered only 64.6% and 60.8% of the vehicles it produced in 2Q 2023 and 1Q 2023, respectively.
Start-up EV manufacturers generally produce more cars than they deliver early in their corporate lives. Such a mismatch can have significant adverse cash flow impacts, and reversing that mismatch can have the opposite (positive) effect.
READ: Tesla Misses Delivery Estimates In Third Quarter
Rivian’s constructive 3Q 2023 vehicle delivery results should translate into improved cash flow results in 3Q 2023, but achievement of even breakeven cash flow is unlikely for some time. Indeed, Rivian’s adjusted EBITDA loss in 2Q 2023 was US$881 million. That cash flow deficit was narrower than the US$1.062 billion and US$1.461 billion losses in 1Q 2023 and 4Q 2022, respectively. Rivian plans to report its 3Q 2023 financial results on November 7.
The company estimates that its full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA loss will be US$4.2 billion. For the twelve months ended June 30, 2023, Rivian’s adjusted EBITDA loss was just over US$4.7 billion.
Rivian’s valuation looks markedly different based on its revenue multiple versus a cash flow analysis. Factoring in its net cash position of about US$7 billion, Rivian’s enterprise value is approximately US$15.5 billion. Consequently, the stock trades at a fairly reasonable ~5x enterprise value-to-revenue multiple. However, Rivian’s US$15.5 billion valuation is much tougher to reconcile with a projected US$4.2 billion adjusted EBITDA shortfall this year.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. last traded at US$23.66 on the NASDAQ.
Information for this story was found via Edgar and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
