Rumours of multiple Liberal MPs leaving caucus have converged into a single operational risk for Mark Carney’s government: safe-seat departures that force synchronized by-elections while ideological and career tensions stack up inside cabinet and on the backbench.
The latest flashpoint is a report that Industry Minister Mélanie Joly is eyeing an exit from caucus, framed as part of a broader pattern of Trudeau-era veterans seeking diplomatic postings or other off-ramps.
Joly holds Ahuntsic-Cartierville with a 61% vote share in April and is described as seeking the Canada ambassador post to France, a move that would remove her from domestic cabinet responsibilities that include industry and Quebec economic development, after prior stints in foreign affairs and heritage.
A parallel track centers on Bill Blair, MP for Scarborough Southwest, who won 61.5% of the vote in April and is described as set to leave while eyeing a High Commissioner posting to the UK. Blair served as defence minister, with earlier portfolios including public safety and emergency preparedness and a pre-politics run as Toronto police chief from 2005 to 2015.
Jonathan Wilkinson, MP for North Vancouver—Capilano, is cited as securing a fourth term in April with 59.8% and is rumoured to want the EU ambassador role in Brussels, with his reported dissatisfaction tied to tensions over Carney’s pro-pipeline posture.
Steven Guilbeault, MP for Laurier—Sainte-Marie since 2019, won with 52.1% of the vote in April and is potentially being shuffled out as frustration grows between him and Carney while the government softens its stance on climate and energy. He currently holds the Identity and Culture file alongside official languages and Parks Canada, after previously serving as environment and climate change minister under Trudeau.
The pipeline file is also linked to reports of active internal strain, including a rumored “30-minute” cabinet meeting ran long amid rumours it was tied to a contentious Alberta pipeline MOU, and a separate claim that conversations between Guilbeault and the PMO include concern about climate policy compromises.
On the Quebec front, Marc Miller is described as being removed from Carney’s cabinet despite winning 63.7% in Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs, with two exit pathways under speculation: not running again or moving into a patronage appointment.
In Ontario, Nate Erskine-Smith adds a second high-percentage trigger point. After saying in 2024 he would not run again, he reversed course following his appointment as Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities, then won 67.7% in Beaches—East York this spring, but is now rumoured to be leaving after being removed from cabinet in May. His on-record comments include that he “doesn’t know what the future holds,” that Carney’s cabinet formation “doesn’t sit right,” and that the Prime Minister’s budget falls “well short” of election promises on climate action, housing, and immigration.
Karina Gould, re-elected in Burlington with 55.8% of the vote, is linked to speculation about pursuing Ontario Liberal leadership after an unsuccessful federal Liberal leadership bid earlier this year and after being moved out of the international development portfolio in the spring.
Chrystia Freeland’s status is framed as administratively awkward rather than numerically close. She holds University—Rosedale with 64%, is set to start a new role at the Rhodes Trust while remaining Ukraine special envoy, and is described as still drawing a taxpayer-funded salary without a stated timeline to vacate her seat.
A separate, related narrative asserts the exits can be coordinated as strategy: Carney advisers are described as trying to align departures to hold by-elections on a single date early in the new year, with a cabinet shuffle “before Christmas” floated, including one timeline placing it in the week of December 15 after the House rises.
On the small but symbolically loud “blue-to-red” lane, Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont (Acadie–Annapolis), who quit the Conservative caucus and joined the Liberals, said he backed the government’s direction and budget priorities. In the same week, Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend) announced he will resign his seat, becoming another Conservative to exit the caucus, although without joining the governing side, narrowing the gap Carney must cross to gain majority.
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