The copper market continues to get tighter. Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.b) this morning became the latest copper producer to reduce copper production guidance, with the reduction coming amid operational issues at their Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile.
QB continues to face constraints in connection with the development of their tailings management facility, with the copper concentrator on site being forced into downtime as a means of managing the rate of tailings rise. The crest height of the tailings dam is being raised through the construction of additional rock benches, while efforts are also focused on improving sand drainage to support construction of a sand dam.
A sand wedge is currently viewed as the solution to the issue that will allow for steady state operation, however slow drainage has delayed the development of the wedge, reducing 2025 production volumes, while further reductions also expected for 2026. Issues on site are expected to be resolved by 2027.
As a result, 2025 guidance for QB has been reduced from a range of 210 to 230 thousand tonnes of copper to a range of 170 to 190 thousand tonnes.
Guidance has also been reduced for 2026, with QB now expected to produce 200 to 235 thousand tonnes of copper next year, down substantially from prior guidance of 280 to 310 thousand tonnes. Net cash unit costs meanwhile are to be between $2.25 to $2.75 per pound. Molybdenum production estimates have been reduced to a range of 2,800 to 3,400 tonnes, down from the prior 6,400 to 7,600 tonne range.
2027 estimates were also cut, with QB now calling for production in a range of 240 to 275 thousand tonnes, down from the prior 280 to 310 thousand tonne range, while molybdenum production has been cut to a range of 4,700 to 5,600 tonnes, down from the prior 7,000 to 8,000 tonne range. And finally, 2028 guidance has been reduced to a range of 220 to 255 thousand tonnes of copper, down from the prior 270 to 300 thousand tonne range, with molybdenum production to be in the range of 5,300 to 6,300 tonnes, down from the prior 6,000 to 7,000 tonne estimate.
Elsewhere, Teck has also reduced guidance for Highland Valley Copper, as well as other operating assets for 2025 and onward. Changes include:
with production here now guided to be in the 120 to 130 thousand tonne range, down from prior guidance of 135 to 150 thousand tonnes of copper. Further changes include:
- Highland Valley Copper:
- 2025: Guidance cut from 135 to 150 thousand tonnes copper to 120 to 130 thousand tonnes copper
- 2026: Guidance cut from 130 to 150 thousand tonnes copper to 115 to 135 thousand tonnes copper
- 2027: Guidance increase from 120 to 140 thousand tonnes copper to 135 to 155 thousand tonnes copper
- 2028: Guidance increase from 90 to 110 thousand tonnes copper to 100 to 120 thousand tonnes copper
- Red Dog
- 2025: Unchanged, with results to be at higher end of 430 to 470 thousand tonnes zinc guidance
- 2026: Guidance cut from 410 to 460 tonnes zinc to 375 to 415 thousand tonnes zinc
- 2027: Guidance cut from 365 to 400 thousand tonnes zinc to 330 to 370 thousand tonnes zinc
- 2028: Guidance cut from 290 to 320 thousand tonnes zinc to 230 to 270 thousand tonnes zinc
- Trail
- 2025: Unchanged, with results to be at higher end of 190 to 230 thousand tonnes zinc guidance
- 2026: Guidance cut from 260 to 300 thousand tonnes zinc to 190 to 230 thousand tonnes zinc
- 2027: Unchanged at 260 to 300 thousand tonnes zinc
- 2028: Unchanged at 260 to 300 thousand tonnes zinc
As a result of the production guidance changes, 2025 copper production is now to be in a range of 415 to 465 thousand tonnes, down from the prior 470 to 525 thousand tonne range. Copper net cash unit cost guidance has been lifted from US$1.90 to $2.05 a pound to US$2.05 to $2.30 a pound. 2026 copper net cash unit costs are to be between US$1.85 to $2.20 a pound, while zinc net cash unit costs are to be between US$0.65 to $0.75 a pound.
Teck Resources Class B shares last traded at $59.17 on the TSX.
Information for this story was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
