Texas has emerged as the main source of a two-month pullback in US crude production, with the country’s largest oil-producing state losing 123,000 barrels per day between April and June even as national output began recovering in the latest month.
US Energy Information Administration data released this week show Texas production falling from 5.851 million bpd in April to 5.803 million bpd in May and 5.728 million bpd in June, a 2.1% decline over two months.
Nationwide production moved from a record 13.981 million bpd in April to 13.755 million bpd in May, before recovering slightly to 13.792 million bpd in June. Texas therefore accounted for about 65% of the 189,000-bpd net US decline between April and June.
The year-over-year comparison is also diverging. Texas produced about 0.5% less crude than in June 2025, while total US production remained about 1.0% higher.
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The decline has renewed scrutiny of operating constraints in the Permian Basin, which spans West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Texas officials and industry representatives warned in August that underground disposal capacity for the Permian’s nearly 1 billion gallons of produced wastewater per day is approaching limits, potentially restricting future oil development. The Railroad Commission has already tightened requirements governing disposal wells, including injection-volume and pressure limits.
There is also evidence pushing against a broad conclusion that the Permian has exhausted its productive acreage. The EIA said in August that operators are extracting more hydrocarbons through longer horizontal wells, while Rystad Energy estimates the basin retains roughly 16 years of premium drilling inventory economic below $55 WTI.
However, the EIA is not forecasting a national production downturn. Its August outlook projects US crude output averaging 13.8 million bpd in 2026 and increasing to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.
