The United States is developing military plans to increase its presence around the Panama Canal following President Donald Trump’s pledge to “reclaim” the waterway, but officials familiar with the planning stress that a military invasion remains highly unlikely.
US Southern Command has prepared options ranging from enhanced security partnerships to a potential military buildup, according to two US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
The officials said that a US invasion of Panama is unlikely and would come under serious consideration only if a larger American military presence does not achieve the administration’s goal of reclaiming the waterway.
According to the officials, the primary objective is to diminish China’s influence in Panama, particularly regarding access to the canal.
Read: BlackRock Leads $22.8 Billion Takeover of Panama Canal Ports
The officials confirmed that Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of US Southern Command, presented draft strategies to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week. Hegseth is expected to visit Panama next month to discuss security cooperation.
Currently, approximately 200 US troops are stationed in Panama, including Special Forces units working with Panamanian security forces.
The US constructed the Panama Canal between 1904 and 1914, but transferred control to Panama in 1999 following treaties signed during the Carter administration. The canal remains one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, with most cargo either originating from or heading to the United States.
Tensions have escalated in recent weeks, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling Panamanian officials last month that “the status quo is unacceptable” regarding China’s presence in the region.
Panama’s government has repeatedly denied claims of Chinese control over the canal, with President José Raúl Mulino insisting that Panama alone administers the waterway in accordance with its constitution, which guarantees the canal’s neutrality.
However, former commander of the Southern Command Army Gen. Laura Richardson last year warned the House Armed Services Committee that Chinese infrastructure investments near the canal could potentially serve dual civilian-military purposes in a future conflict scenario.
“The PRC messages its investments as peaceful, but in fact, many serve as points of future multi-domain access for the PLA and strategic naval choke points,” Richardson said. “In Panama, PRC-controlled state-owned enterprises, SOEs, continue to bid on projects related to the Panama Canal — a global strategic choke point.”
Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
