A BBC investigation has found repeated spikes in trading activity across oil futures, stock markets, and prediction platforms in the minutes and hours before President Donald Trump made his most significant market-moving announcements — raising questions about whether traders had advance access to information that was not yet public.
The investigation, by BBC reporter Nick Marsh, examined trade volume data across multiple financial markets and matched spikes to Trump’s major statements on Truth Social and in media interviews. Analysts told the BBC the pattern “bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading.”
Others argued that certain traders have simply developed a sharper read on when the president is about to move markets. No charges have been filed, and neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has publicly announced any investigation.
The BBC documented five specific episodes. On March 9, oil futures traders placed unusually large bets on falling oil prices 47 minutes before Trump told CBS News the Iran war was “very complete, pretty much” — a statement that sent Brent crude from around $100 to $85 — a roughly 15% drop — within minutes.
On March 23, trading volumes in Brent crude futures spiked from double digits to 1,619 contracts 14 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social about “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran, with one oil analyst telling the BBC the activity appeared “abnormal, for sure.”
Related: $51.5M Brent Short Surfaces as Oil Hits Record Monthly Surge
On Liberation Day, April 2, 2025, unusual stock market activity preceded Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement, and again when he later paused those tariffs, and markets surged.
In December 2025, an account called “Burdensome-Mix” placed its first-ever bet — $32,500 on Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026. When US special forces seized Maduro the following day, the account collected $436,000, was renamed, and went dark.
Related: Who’s Betting on an Iran Ceasefire — and What Do They Know?
In February 2026, six accounts, all created in February, all wagered on a US strike on Iran happening by February 28. When Trump confirmed the strikes in the early hours of that date, the accounts collected $1.2 million combined. Five went silent immediately; the sixth went on to correctly bet on a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7, winning an additional $163,000.
Related: Mystery Trader Made $553K Betting on Iran’s Supreme Leader Days Before His Death
The White House has not responded to the BBC’s findings. Under US securities law, insider trading requires proof that trades were made using material non-public information obtained through a breach of duty — a high legal bar that makes prosecution difficult even where patterns are striking.
The investigation covers Trump’s entire second term and spans oil futures, equities, and decentralised prediction markets — a breadth that analysts say makes coincidence a less plausible explanation with each additional example.
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