Alberta separatists face an uphill battle as new polling shows just one in five Albertans support independence, even as organizers claim hundreds of thousands of signature pledges for an upcoming referendum.
Only 19% of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada in a hypothetical referendum, according to a Pollara Strategic Insights survey of 3,800 Western Canadian adults conducted December 5-20, 2025. Three-quarters of Albertans would vote against separation, leaving separatists far from the majority needed to win a referendum.
“Western alienation is real, but separatism is very minor and marginal,” Matt Smith, Pollara’s western executive vice president, told the National Post. Smith also described it to CBC News as “a very vocal minority and a very quiet supermajority,” noting that polling consistently shows support has never exceeded 20% in Alberta.
The meager support comes despite Elections Alberta approving a referendum question in December 2025 asking, “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” The Alberta Prosperity Project requires 177,732 signatures by May to trigger a referendum this fall, though organizers claim to have secured 240,000 signature pledges.
Separatist sentiment concentrates almost entirely within conservative political circles. While 40% of provincial United Conservative Party voters support separation, the movement finds virtually no traction elsewhere: just 3% of Liberal supporters and 2% of NDP supporters back independence. Even among federal Conservative supporters, only 32% favor separation.
The limited appeal coincides with improving Alberta-Ottawa relations. 51% of Albertans now feel the federal government considers their provincial interests when crafting policy, up 13 percentage points from a 2023 low of 38% — the highest result in four years of tracking.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s engagement strategy appears to be undercutting separatist arguments. The November 2025 memorandum of understanding with Alberta on energy development streamlined regulatory processes for a proposed oil pipeline to British Columbia’s coast while Ottawa dropped plans for an oil and gas emissions cap. Carney also located the new Major Projects Office in Calgary.
“Carney’s more economic focus, bringing in policies that the West and others wanted, is resonating with people,” Smith said.
Mitch Sylvestre, the Alberta Prosperity Project’s CEO and a United Conservative Party constituency association president, acknowledged the substantial work needed to build referendum-winning support. The organization conducts weekly town halls and recruits door-to-door canvassers to broaden its base beyond the conservative minority that currently backs separation.
The separatist push arrives as Premier Danielle Smith pursues controversial provincial policies that critics say fuel regional grievances. Smith proposed in December to deny newcomers access to health care, public education, and child care until they work and pay taxes for several years.
Read: Alberta Premier Proposes Denying Health Care, Education to Newcomers Until They Pay Taxes
A rival initiative called Forever Canadian collected more than 456,000 signatures — nearly triple the separatist group’s claimed pledges—proposing Albertans vote on whether the province should remain in Canada. Elections Alberta declared the petition successful in December, setting up a potential dueling referendum scenario.
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