Alberta separatists face an uphill battle as new polling shows just one in five Albertans support independence, even as organizers claim hundreds of thousands of signature pledges for an upcoming referendum.
Only 19% of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada in a hypothetical referendum, according to a Pollara Strategic Insights survey of 3,800 Western Canadian adults conducted December 5-20, 2025. Three-quarters of Albertans would vote against separation, leaving separatists far from the majority needed to win a referendum.
“Western alienation is real, but separatism is very minor and marginal,” Matt Smith, Pollara’s western executive vice president, told the National Post. Smith also described it to CBC News as “a very vocal minority and a very quiet supermajority,” noting that polling consistently shows support has never exceeded 20% in Alberta.
The meager support comes despite Elections Alberta approving a referendum question in December 2025 asking, “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” The Alberta Prosperity Project requires 177,732 signatures by May to trigger a referendum this fall, though organizers claim to have secured 240,000 signature pledges.
Separatist sentiment concentrates almost entirely within conservative political circles. While 40% of provincial United Conservative Party voters support separation, the movement finds virtually no traction elsewhere: just 3% of Liberal supporters and 2% of NDP supporters back independence. Even among federal Conservative supporters, only 32% favor separation.
The limited appeal coincides with improving Alberta-Ottawa relations. 51% of Albertans now feel the federal government considers their provincial interests when crafting policy, up 13 percentage points from a 2023 low of 38% — the highest result in four years of tracking.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s engagement strategy appears to be undercutting separatist arguments. The November 2025 memorandum of understanding with Alberta on energy development streamlined regulatory processes for a proposed oil pipeline to British Columbia’s coast while Ottawa dropped plans for an oil and gas emissions cap. Carney also located the new Major Projects Office in Calgary.
“Carney’s more economic focus, bringing in policies that the West and others wanted, is resonating with people,” Smith said.
Mitch Sylvestre, the Alberta Prosperity Project’s CEO and a United Conservative Party constituency association president, acknowledged the substantial work needed to build referendum-winning support. The organization conducts weekly town halls and recruits door-to-door canvassers to broaden its base beyond the conservative minority that currently backs separation.
The separatist push arrives as Premier Danielle Smith pursues controversial provincial policies that critics say fuel regional grievances. Smith proposed in December to deny newcomers access to health care, public education, and child care until they work and pay taxes for several years.
Read: Alberta Premier Proposes Denying Health Care, Education to Newcomers Until They Pay Taxes
A rival initiative called Forever Canadian collected more than 456,000 signatures — nearly triple the separatist group’s claimed pledges—proposing Albertans vote on whether the province should remain in Canada. Elections Alberta declared the petition successful in December, setting up a potential dueling referendum scenario.
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3 Responses
What the last 5 or 6 years has taught me is all forms of media spin things in order to push the narrative that pays the bills!! Common folk on the ground say one thing, and then the reporting of that says something totally different. Everyday Joe’s and Jane’s are getting sick and tired of politicians and bureaucracy, stealing what meager paycheques or pensions we have only to have the media spin it so it doesn’t sound so bad. Kinda like cutting and pasting…CBC?? South of the border corruption fraud and outright theft is estimated to be in the multiple billions so you can rest assured that Canada per capita is right in there if not worse!! Why would anybody want to stay a part of that if you had the opportunity to separate?
Cry yourself into a coma, Edward. Perhaps if you spent less time blaming others for your “meagre paycheque” and more time building a solid financial foundation you wouldn’t be so gung-ho to sell us out at the drop of a hat to our voraciously greedy Southern neighbours.
It is shocking how the United Conservatives Party talks about Alberta becoming a separate country. 40% of the UPC would vote Yes. Not only is it treasonous, it is so very stupid. The idiots have breezed past using it as an Ottawa blackmail tactic to actually believing it would be workable. They would be bankrupt in months if suceded. Most of Alberta land is not theirs but is tied up in First Nations treaties. The oil industry is a sundown economy. No longer is worth all Canadian taxpayer pipeline support as too high a cost. Taxpayers are still at a huge financial loss on the last pipeline to BC coast. That pipeline is not even running at capacity.
The federal UCP is firmly tied to US Trump and relied on that propaganda support to have any chance for winning a majority election.
It is time for intelligent conservatives to form a new party, that does not allow a US intervention but believes in Canadian sovereignty.
Democractic resiliency relies on multiple parties who can work together, who have differing opinions but ALL are loyal to the common good of the country and all Canadians.