The Alberta Prosperity Project unveiled its potential referendum question Monday: “Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”
Jeffrey Rath, the group’s lawyer, called the question “as serious as a heart attack,” claiming it’s clearer than Quebec’s 1995 secession referendum wording.
But interestingly, after the part about wanting to be a “sovereign country,” Alberta separatists claim residents would keep their Canadian passports and pension benefits after independence. The separatist group also predicts an independent Alberta would see oil production double within five years, with new pipelines extending through Montana and reduced taxes.
MacEwan University business professor Carlos Freire-Gibb called these promises unrealistic.
“I don’t think any company will invest in a region where we don’t know what’s going to happen,” Freire-Gibb said. He warned there’s no guarantee of favorable trade deals with Canada or the United States after separation.
Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney had previously expressed opposition to separatism in social media statements. Despite citing Alberta’s $20 billion annual contribution to Canadian fiscal federalism, Kenney advocated for provincial alliances rather than separation.
“Alberta wins when we make alliances with other provinces,” Kenney wrote, referencing his administration’s court challenges against federal carbon taxes and environmental regulations.
APP leader Mitch Sylvestre says the group won’t launch a petition until reaching 600,000 supporters — far above the 177,000 signatures soon required by law to force a referendum. Premier Danielle Smith has said she would allow a 2026 separation referendum if enough citizens demand it, though she personally opposes leaving Canada.
“It’s my job to see if we can get a new deal with Ottawa,” Smith said. On Monday, she announced plans to unilaterally freeze Alberta’s industrial carbon tax at $95 per ton rather than following the federal plan to increase it to $170 by 2030.
The movement gained some momentum after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won a fourth consecutive term last month while Alberta overwhelmingly voted Conservative, but legal hurdles remain significant. Canada’s Clarity Act requires a “clear majority” supporting independence followed by federal negotiations.
Indigenous leaders have already promised opposition, potentially pursuing international legal challenges to protect treaties that predate Alberta’s formation. An Angus Reid Institute poll found that only 19% of Albertans would definitely support leaving Canada, with another 17% leaning that way. More than half remain committed to staying.
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