Anthropic has emerged as the hot ticket in the AI investment space, with secondary market demand for its shares hitting record levels while OpenAI struggles to find buyers. Institutional investors are lining up $2 billion in cash to snap up Anthropic equity, a stark contrast to OpenAI’s recent inability to offload roughly $600 million in shares.
The shift in investor sentiment is striking. At Next Round Capital, founder Ken Smythe revealed that despite approaching hundreds of institutional investors, not a single buyer could be found for OpenAI shares in recent weeks. Last year, such offerings would have vanished within days, but now, even at a discounted valuation of $765 billion—down 10% from a prior $850 billion—no interest has materialized.
Anthropic, meanwhile, is riding a wave of enthusiasm. Bids on platforms like Next Round and Augment value the company at around $600 billion, a more than 50% jump from its last funding round. Hiive, another marketplace, has logged over $1.6 billion in demand for Anthropic shares at a similar premium, with co-founder Prab Rattan noting the interest as among the highest ever seen.
The risk-reward calculus appears to be driving this divergence. Adam Crawley, co-founder of Augment, pointed out that Anthropic’s $380 billion valuation offers more upside potential compared to OpenAI’s towering $852 billion figure. “People are betting that Anthropic’s valuation will catch up with OpenAI’s,” Crawley said, adding that the return on OpenAI shares feels less certain in the near term.
Operational dynamics are also at play. OpenAI’s aggressive spending on infrastructure to fuel its AI ambitions has raised eyebrows, especially as it lags in capturing high-margin enterprise clients. Anthropic, by contrast, has carved out a dominant position in that lucrative segment, bolstering its growth outlook.
Banks are reflecting this disparity in their offerings. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have waived carry fees for OpenAI shares pitched to wealth clients, while Goldman maintains its standard 15% to 20% carry on Anthropic equity, signaling confidence in the latter’s profitability.
Anthropic isn’t without hurdles, though. The company is entangled in a lawsuit against the US Department of Defense over a supply-chain risk designation that bans government use of its tech. Additionally, a second security breach this week saw internal source code for its Claude model accidentally released.
Even so, investor appetite shows no sign of cooling. OpenAI may have just closed a record $122 billion fundraising round, but on the secondary market, Anthropic’s momentum is undeniable, with bids reflecting a valuation gap that continues to narrow.
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