On September 16, Ayr Wellness (CSE: AYR.a) closed their Garden State Dispensary acquisition, a New Jersey-based vertically integrated operator. Garden State has 1 of the 12 vertical licenses within the state. The company currently has 3 open dispensaries and a 30,000 square foot cultivation and production facility.
The total consideration for the deal came in at US$101 million, which is split up into US$41 million in cash, US$30 million in Ayr Wellness shares, and US$30 million in a promissory note. The team can earn a potential additional US$97 million if they hit revenue targets, paid in a mixture of cash, promissory notes, and shares.
Ayr Wellness currently has only 6 analysts covering the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $70, or a 135% upside. Out of the 6 analysts, 2 have strong buy ratings and the other 4 have buy ratings. The street high sits at $84 while the lowest price target is $35.
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After the closing of the deal, Canaccord released a note where they reiterated their $70 12-month price target and buy rating. They say that management has estimated they paid, inclusive of earn-outs, 4x 2022 adjusted EBITDA. Because of this, they believe that adjusted EBITDA was in the range of US$50 million, putting revenue “well in excess of US$100M from this asset.”
They believe these estimates hinge on the success of the new adult-use sales rollout that is expected to happen in New Jersey, saying, “Although we believe any near-term contribution from this asset will ultimately be heavily dependent on the speed and efficiency with which state legislators allow this market to evolve.” They peg the New Jersey adult-use market at >US$2.5 billion.
Canaccord says that with this deal closing, most of the transformational M&A has hit the books, which should translate into strong quarter over quarter and year over year growth for Ayr. They have elected to keep their forward estimates the same at $375.5 million and $113.34 million for 2021 revenue and EBITDA, respectively. These figures are expected to grow to $802.3 million and $293.3 million in 2022 respectively.
Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
