Monday, October 6, 2025

Latest

Canada in Recession Despite Growth Numbers, Former Central Bank Chief Says

Canada is experiencing a recession masked by immigration-driven consumption, former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Tuesday, as per-capita GDP continues its downward trend.

Poloz, now special adviser at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, said during a webinar that traditional recession indicators have been obscured by new arrivals. “I would say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one,” he said, explaining that immigrant consumers “buy the basics in life, and that boosts our consumption enough” to hide underlying weakness.

Statistics Canada reported last Friday that GDP per capita fell 0.4% in the third quarter, marking its sixth straight quarterly decline, and has been negative in eight of the last nine quarters. While overall economic growth reached 2.1% in the second quarter, it slowed to 1% in the third quarter, with Poloz noting that “the only good news… is government spending. That’s not the sort of thing to build your recovery on.”

The former central bank chief pointed to a 30% increase in living costs from recent inflation as a key factor suppressing consumer spending. He also warned that potential 25% tariffs on Canadian imports threatened by incoming US president-elect Donald Trump could deepen economic challenges.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates such tariffs could reduce Canada’s GDP by 2.6% while cutting US GDP by 1.6%.

Poloz cautioned that tariffs could force central banks into a difficult position of maintaining higher interest rates despite economic slowdown. “There’s the presentation to the bank, the economy is slowing, but inflation is picking up because of tariffs,” he said. “I think most central banks are going to say, I gotta be worried about the inflation part. And so that’s a recipe for deeper stagflation.”

Regarding recent government stimulus measures, including a two-month goods and services tax pause, Poloz was skeptical. “There are so many other ways to boost the economy that would provide a longer lasting effect,” he said. “So giving away these things is kind of like giving somebody a fish instead of giving them a fishing rod.”


Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Video Articles

Fortune Bay: The Potential Billion Dollar Project

Japan Gold Enters New Chapter as Barrick Alliance Concludes – John Proust

Barrick Mining’s “Company Defining [Gold] Discovery”

Recommended

Nord Precious Metals Produces High Grade Silver Concentrate From Tailings

ESGold Secures $9 Million In Non-Dilutive Funding From Ocean Partners

Related News

BC’s Sunshine Coast Declares State of Local Emergency As Drought Conditions Worsen

A state of local emergency has been declared in the Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD),...

Tuesday, October 18, 2022, 02:14:00 PM

Citi Bank: UK Inflation Will Hit 18.6% in 2023 and Rising Interest Rates Likely Won’t Help

The outlook for the UK’s economy is becoming increasingly more bleak. A recent study conducted...

Friday, August 26, 2022, 12:36:00 PM

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party Breaks Record for Fundraising Dollars in Q4 2022

The Conservative Party of Canada likes its new leader and it shows. The party was...

Thursday, February 2, 2023, 07:23:52 AM

Canadian Retail Sales Increased 1.1% in September, But October Momentum Showing Signs of Slowdown

Canadian retail trade showed better than expected results for the month of September, with sales...

Friday, November 20, 2020, 04:01:00 PM

Mexico, Canada Must ‘Shut Border’ to Avoid Tariffs Says Trump’s Commerce Pick

Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, said on Wednesday that Mexico and...

Thursday, January 30, 2025, 02:04:00 PM