Canada In Technical Recession Based On Advanced StatCan Estimate

The economy in Canada is so strong that it appears we have entered a technical recession based on preliminary data provided by Statistics Canada this morning in its August 2023 update for gross domestic product by industry.

The agency indicated within the report an advanced estimate for real GDP for September and Q3 2023 that states that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in September, as was the third quarter of 2023. Three straight months of flat output, beginning in July, suggests a decline of 0.1% on an annualized basis, and follows a decrease of 0.2% in the second quarter.

Those subsequent declines point to a technical recession being entered into, based on two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. It also highlights that the Bank of Canada – who sets Canada’s interest rate policy – was substantially short on its estimate for 0.8% growth in the third quarter, an estimate that was released just days ago in its Monetary Policy Report.

The data for the third quarter, as a result of being an advanced estimate, is of course subject to revision.

Real GDP meanwhile for the month of August 2023 was unchanged, with services producing industries up 0.1% in the month, while goods-producing industries contracted by 0.2%, which shook out to a 0.0% monthly change.

Information for this story was found via StatCan and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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