Canada’s oil export model is shifting fast enough that non-US markets are now the primary driver of year-over-year export growth, with October’s non-US share surging to nearly 16% and the US share falling to about 84% of total exports.
The non-US share is roughly 5 times the pre-TMX level, implying a pre-expansion baseline near 3% of exports, and October’s step-change sits at the top end of the post-2024 range after years of mostly low single-digit non-US shares from 2016 through early 2024.
Most of the incremental non-US pull is China, indicating the new barrels exiting via Pacific Coast capacity are not just optional on paper but already clearing into Asia at scale.
The year-over-year change in oil exports is being carried by non-US destinations: non-US flows contribute roughly +9 percentage points to the y/y change, while the US contributes roughly -6 percentage points.
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On a volume basis, the 16% non-US share surge in October maps cleanly onto the current export routing estimates: from roughly 4.0 million barrels per day of Canadian oil exports, about 500,000 to 700,000 bpd now goes to Asia, again with China a key destination.
This rerouting is happening before a potential Venezuela reentry into heavy crude trade flows that could increase competitive pressure in the US, especially on the Gulf Coast where heavy crude configurations matter most.
Trump’s Venezuela push hinges on US companies returning to spend “billions of dollars” repairing infrastructure, then selling large volumes of oil globally, a direct competitive threat because both Venezuela and Canada produce heavy crude that is harder to refine and has historically leaned on US refineries.
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