A September 29 Goldman Sachs research note puts Persian Gulf oil exports, counting the unreported “dark” flows the bank tracks separately, at 23.3 million barrels a day over the week ending September 28 — close to pre-war volumes and back at the 2025 average after roughly doubling since the start of the month.
Crude is almost fully back, at 19 million barrels a day, 108% of the 2025 average, and it accounts for nearly 90% of September’s gain. However, refined products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are stuck at about half their normal volume.
Goldman points to two reasons: the region’s refineries, unlike its oil fields, have taken real damage, with outages running 2 million barrels a day above seasonal norms, and refined cargoes are more flammable than crude, making tanker operators more cautious about the physical risk of a Hormuz crossing.
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Recovery came despite a drone attack that knocked out Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline on September 11, cutting off loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea terminal, normally about 4.5 million barrels a day, for close to two weeks, and an ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi Red Sea exports through Bab-al-Mandab, which has pushed that route’s loadings toward zero since earlier this year and sent crude bound for Asia through the Suez Canal instead.
Read: Saudi Arabia Confirms East-West Pipeline Attack, Shuts Down Main Hormuz Bypass
No group has claimed the pipeline strike, but reporting that traced the drones to Iraq pointed to Iran-backed militia groups operating there. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has previously warned that “either all Gulf states export oil freely or none will.”
Saudi Arabia’s exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day over the last week, above its 2025 average, as the kingdom shifted Red Sea cargoes toward eastern terminals and leaned harder on the ship-to-ship transfers Goldman tracks as dark exports.
The UAE posted a smaller but similar gain, moving above its own 2025 average with what Goldman sees as room to grow further. Iran saw no such recovery: satellite data in the note show zero seaborne exports of its crude or main refined products in September.
Brent fell more than 2% on September 29 to around $102 a barrel as Saudi Arabia resumed Yanbu loadings, even though the benchmark remains up roughly 14% for the month. Prices had spiked the day before, topping $107, after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifted sanctions and the release of frozen funds.
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Goldman’s base case has Brent moderating to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, as Gulf supply and Chinese import demand continue adjusting to the war. The bank estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September, with OECD stockpiles back near where they stood just before the fighting began in late February.
Dated Brent is still trading near $120 a barrel, a risk premium Goldman ties to fears of “renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure.”
