Carney, Not Poilievre, Getting Credit for Axing the Carbon Tax

New polling data reveals an unexpected twist in the Canadian federal election — one that’s unfortunate for Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre. Voters credit Liberal Leader Mark Carney for ending the carbon tax rather than Poilievre, despite him making “axe the tax” a central campaign slogan.

According to an Abacus Data poll released April 9, 55% of respondents cite Carney as the leader who should get credit for eliminating the carbon pricing, compared to just 28% who attribute it to Poilievre’s advocacy.

“This data will make some Conservatives’ heads explode,” said Abacus CEO David Coletto, noting that Carney appears to be benefiting from the policy change while avoiding the blame associated with implementing it. The poll reveals that Carney is effectively using what was intended to be a political liability as a strategic advantage.

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The survey also highlights broader voter sentiment heading into the election. With 42% of decided voters supporting the Liberals versus 36% backing the Conservatives, Carney’s party holds a significant lead. Other parties show limited support, with the NDP at 11%, Bloc Québécois at 5%, and Green Party at 2%.

Coletto’s analysis suggests the election is increasingly divided along emotional lines. Conservatives appeal to voters with a “scarcity mindset” focused on immediate cost-of-living relief, while Liberals connect with those having a “precarity mindset” concerned about long-term stability and uncertainty.

The poll found 47% of Canadians have favorable impressions of Carney compared to 28% negative, while Poilievre’s ratings stand at 38% positive and 44% negative. Adding to Poilievre’s heartbreak, the poll reveals that Conservative supporters were the group most likely to notice lower gas prices, yet 26% of these same Conservative voters credited Liberal leader Carney—not Poilievre—for eliminating the carbon tax.

Related: Poilievre Holds Slim Lead in Alberta as Trump Comparisons Shadow Campaign

Abacus Data conducted the survey with 1,900 Canadian adults from March 25-27 amid economic uncertainty as Canada navigates both domestic affordability concerns and the impact of Donald Trump’s policies on trade relations.

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