Cathie Wood Is Targeting Over US$1 Million Per Bitcoin In 2030 But Her Own Math Might Prove Otherwise

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has a bullish target for the price of bitcoin: over US$1 million per coin in 2030. The question, however, is where is this number coming from?

Speaking at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, Wood relayed the high-level forecast from her firm’s Big Ideas 2022 report. This included the illustrious price target for the cryptocurrency.

“We have a price target in 2030 for bitcoin of more than a million dollars per bitcoin,” Wood said.

The optimistic outlook, however, was met with a lukewarm response, which the investment manager acknowledged herself. “See, even you can’t believe it. I expected a big roaring [reaction],” she added.

Diving deep into the firm’s report, the section on bitcoin opens with the premise that the coin’s market capitalization “hit an all-time high in 2021.” With the projected scale of assets being held in bitcoin, the report suggests that the price of bitcoin is estimated to exceed US$1 million by 2030.

Bitcoin market capitalization
Source: Statista

Looking further at the report, the analysts arrived at a projected US$28.5 trillion market cap for bitcoin in 2030, a huge jump from its value of US$1.1 trillion in 2021. The projection is broken down by estimated growth in financial sectors including national treasuries and the institutional asset base.

What’s interesting is the report totaled the value of average bitcoin prices per sector, thereby reaching the projected US$1.36 million bitcoin price, instead of averaging it to get the nominal bitcoin price in this projected scenario. After a few calculations based on the given projections, the average bitcoin price actually lands at US$169,044.16.

Source: ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2022
Bitcoin use caseBitcoin market capPrice per bitcoin Bitcoin volume  
Global remittances300,000,000,00014,000.0021,428,571.43 
US bank settlements3,800,000,000,000181,000.0020,994,475.14 
Trreasury reserves3,800,000,000,000181,000.0020,994,475.14 
HNWI wealth4,000,000,000,000190,000.0021,052,631.58 
Institutional asset4,100,000,000,000196,000.0020,918,367.35 
Gold5,500,000,000,000260,000.0021,153,846.15Average price per bitcoin
Total28,500,000,000,000 168,594,998.36169,044.16

The conference in Miami also saw the unveiling of a bull statue — similar to Wall Street’s Charging Bull — representing the cryptocurrency.

The polarizing fund manager made some head-scratching moves this quarter, including maintaining that oil prices will still collapse amidst the current rally, and pulling out shares in Palantir Technologies which led to a reported US$380 million in losses.

Wood’s ARK Innovation has also been deemed the “worst-performing fund” in Q1 2022, according to analytics firm Morningstar.

Information for this briefing was found via Twitter and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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