Canada’s canola exports to China have recovered following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January trade agreement with Beijing, but the arrangement left Australian suppliers with a tariff advantage that remains in place as Chinese buyers secure shipments for 2027.
Canadian canola seed currently faces a combined 14.9% Chinese import duty, compared with 9% on Australian shipments. The difference persists despite Ottawa’s agreement to ease restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for agricultural trade relief.
According to Statistics Canada, Canada exported 2.58 million metric tonnes of canola seed to China between January and August 2026. That exceeds the 2.13 million tonnes shipped throughout 2025, although it remains below the 5.93 million tonnes exported in 2024.
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Canadian shipments reached 608,418 tonnes in May before declining to 278,571 tonnes in August.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported Thursday that Chinese state-owned and private buyers had purchased approximately 15 cargoes of Australian canola, totaling nearly one million tonnes, for delivery in early 2027.
Three Asia-based traders supplied the purchasing information. One trader familiar with the transactions put delivered prices at $695 to $705 per tonne, implying a transaction value approaching $700 million if the volume is close to one million tonnes.
Carney’s January agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping provided for up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles annually to enter Canada at a 6.1% tariff, replacing the previous 100% surtax for vehicles within the quota.
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In return, China reduced its provisional 75.8% antidumping duty on Canadian canola seed to a final 5.9% rate, effective March 1.
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However, the antidumping duty remains additional to China’s standard 9% import tariff. Australia’s shipments face the standard tariff without the additional Canadian-specific duty.
The Canola Council also reports that China’s 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil remains in effect, while the suspension of its tariff on Canadian canola meal currently runs only through December 31, 2026.
Australia’s competitive position extends beyond tariffs. Beijing initially resumed Australian canola imports through state-owned trader COFCO before extending access to private crushers in July 2026.
By September, Reuters had documented a 68,000-tonne Australian purchase by a private Chinese processor for March delivery, priced around $730 per tonne.
The latest reported purchases involve substantially larger volumes and both private and state-owned buyers. Reuters’ trading sources also identified lower freight costs and favourable crushing margins as supporting Australian purchases.
