Coinbase Sees Canaccord More Than Halve Price Target To $120

On May 10th, Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) reported its first-quarter financial results, posting $1.165 billion in net revenues. This is down from the $2.5 billion it reported last quarter as crypto saw a slowdown, with the company reporting 9.2 million monthly users, down from 11.4 million. Additionally, trading volume was down from $547 billion to $309 billion quarter over quarter, while assets on the platform shrunk from $278 billion to $256 billion.

In Coinbase’s letter to investors, they comment that they “believe these market conditions are not permanent,” then add that the total crypto market capitalization has dropped by roughly 30% in the March quarter. Of that $309 billion trading volume, institutional was a majority at $235 billion, down from $371 billion. While retail trading volume evaporated as the market dropped, going from $177 billion in trading volume to $74 billion.

Coinbase provided some loose second-quarter guidance, saying that they expect both monthly users and total trading volume to be lower than their first-quarter results. While they guide that second-quarter subscription and services revenue will be, “similar to modestly lower in Q2 compared to Q1.”

Lastly, Coinbase reiterated their full-year 2022 guidance except for adjusted EBITDA, which they now expect to come in at ($500) million.

Coinbase currently has 26 analysts covering the stock with an average 12-month price target of US$190, which is a 225% upside to the current stock price. Out of the 26 analysts, 7 have strong buy ratings, 11 have buy ratings, 6 analysts have hold ratings and the last 2 analysts have sell ratings on the stock. The street high price target sits at US$600, which represents an almost 930% upside to the current stock price.

In Canaccord Genuity’s note on the results, they reiterate their buy rating on the stock while slashing their 12-month price target from US$275 to US$120, while not providing a specific reason for the cut.

Though Canaccord did utterly cut their 2022 and 2023 estimates. They now estimate full-year 2022 sales at $5.058 billion and 2023 sales at $6.08 billion. This is down from their previous estimates of $7.57 billion and $9.12 billion, respectively. And that’s not their biggest estimate cut. They now expect Coinbase to report ($111.4) million in adjusted EBITDA for 2022, which is down from their previous estimate of $3.76 billion. Their new 2023 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $159.6 million, down from $4.57 billion previously.

On the results, Canaccord says that the company reported weaker-than-expected first quarter results as the crypto sector sees volatility. Though they note that the crypto market (their note was written on May 10th, before Luna and Terra crashed) is not down for any specific reason and rather they are just following the equity market’s “risk-off” trade which is driven by the macro.

Canaccord argues that some of the company’s results, like adjusted EBITDA, do not entirely matter as long as Coinbase has such a large war chest while the crypto markets develop rapidly. They write, “COIN can purposefully make more strategic moves than most and that should be appreciated.”

Though they admit that the crypto market is highly correlated with the stock market, they believe that this correlation is good for Coinbase as they can seek to “likely exploit the current and future air pockets to solidify its industry position.”

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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