A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute reveals a sharp decline in support for Pierre Poilievre among Conservative voters, with 30% now favoring a change in leadership ahead of the next federal election. This marks a significant jump from just 18% who felt the same last August, signaling growing discontent within the party’s base.
The survey, conducted in mid-April with 1,646 Canadians including 590 past Conservative voters, shows Poilievre’s backing has fallen to 57% from 68% over the same period. This erosion comes amid a turbulent political landscape, as the Liberals under Mark Carney have secured a majority in the House of Commons following recent byelection wins and high-profile defections from the Conservative ranks. National polls now place the Liberals ahead by double digits, amplifying the pressure on Poilievre.
Public perception is also souring, with 60% of all respondents holding an unfavorable view of the Conservative leader. Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, pointed to Poilievre’s persistent struggle to connect with female voters as a lingering challenge. She noted that while the 30% dissent within the party isn’t fatal, it creates an opening for potential rivals to maneuver.
Defections have fueled voter frustration, with 69% of Conservative supporters blaming floor-crossers like Sarnia MP Marilyn Gladu—the fourth to join the Liberals—for Carney’s strengthened grip on power. Another 45% of all polled Canadians believe Poilievre’s leadership style is pushing members away from the party.
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Poilievre has attempted to pivot, launching a series of TV and radio ads in early April and making international trips to the U.K., Germany, and the U.S. to bolster his foreign policy credentials. He’s also sought to soften his image through long-form interviews, including a 2.5-hour discussion with Joe Rogan and a personal podcast appearance on ‘The Diary of a CEO’ where he discussed raising a daughter with autism. Despite these efforts, the numbers suggest limited traction.
Party insiders remain publicly silent on a leadership challenge, though the caucus voted last spring to empower itself to oust a leader with signatures from just 20% of members triggering a secret ballot. Sam Lilly, Poilievre’s director of media relations, emphasized strong internal backing from a January convention review, touting a ‘record number’ of supporters and framing the fight against the Liberals’ policies as a unifying cause.
Analysts see the Conservatives in a strategic lull. Daniel Béland of McGill Institute for the Study of Canada suggested no one is eager to challenge Carney during his current popularity surge, with the next election not due until 2029. Ginny Roth of Crestview Strategies urged Poilievre to reconnect with grassroots voters, citing recent appearances at a UFC match and a Winnipeg shop floor as steps in the right direction.
The Angus Reid poll, conducted online between April 15 and 17, offers a stark snapshot: Poilievre’s net favorability sits at a dismal -17% nationally, with particularly steep negatives in Quebec at -24% and Atlantic Canada at -30%.
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