Copper Hits Record High Amid Supply Shortage Warnings

Copper surged to a record high Friday as warnings from a major industry conference intensified concerns that accelerating US imports could drain inventories worldwide.

Kostas Bintas, head of metals at commodity trading giant Mercuria Energy Group, told an industry gathering in Shanghai that accelerating flows of copper to the United States threaten to deplete inventories across the rest of the world.

“This is the big one,” Bintas said at the Center for Copper and Mining Studies conference. “If the world keeps going like this, we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed 2.5% to reach $11,210.50 per metric ton before settling 2.3% higher, eclipsing the previous record from October. The metal has surged approximately 27% in 2025.

Market participants have redirected substantial volumes to American storage facilities over recent weeks, capitalizing on elevated Comex pricing while hedging against potential tariff implementation. These cross-market arbitrage flows have tightened availability outside US borders.

The supply picture continues deteriorating across multiple fronts. Chile, which accounts for the largest share of global copper production, reported output declines in October. Chinese smelters have scaled back production amid shortages of copper concentrate. Mine development has lagged for years due to insufficient capital investment, constraining the industry’s ability to expand capacity.

Meanwhile, demand pressures intensify. Data center construction to support artificial intelligence operations has accelerated copper consumption. Electric vehicle manufacturing, renewable energy infrastructure, and power grid modernization projects continue driving requirements higher.

Technical disruptions compounded Friday’s volatility. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a multi-hour trading outage that fragmented liquidity and exaggerated price movements when operations resumed. Reduced market activity during the extended American holiday weekend amplified the swings.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates have provided additional support. Rate reductions generally weaken dollar valuations and may stimulate industrial activity, boosting copper consumption.

Goldman Sachs raised its December 2025 copper price forecast to $10,610 per ton from $10,385 earlier in November. The investment bank maintains its 2026-2027 price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, projecting modest supply surpluses ahead. Some analysts anticipate prices could breach $12,000 per ton if supply constraints persist while electrification and infrastructure demand continue expanding.

US copper futures on Comex advanced 2% to $5.31 per pound after trading resumed following the exchange outage. Earlier this year, Comex copper reached a record $5.96 per pound as traders positioned for potential US tariffs on metal imports.

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