Conservative support has edged ahead of the governing Liberals nationwide for the first time in several months, according to a new Abacus Data poll highlighting Liberal weakness as economic anxieties intensify.
The poll, conducted August 15 to 19 among 1,915 Canadian adults, found Conservative support at 41% among decided voters, up one point, while Liberal support dropped four points to 39% since early August. This is the first time the Conservatives have led in the polling firm’s surveys in several months.
Liberal government approval also slipped to 49%, falling below the 50% threshold for the first time since March, with disapproval rising to 30%. The decline comes as cost-of-living concerns continue to squeeze Canadian households.
Perhaps more troubling for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, only 34% of Canadians now believe the Liberals deserve re-election — a four-point drop since June. Meanwhile, two-thirds of Canadians say it’s time for change, with 36% believing there is a good alternative and another 30% wanting change but are uncertain about viable options.
Affordability remains the paramount concern for Canadian voters, with 60% identifying it among their top three priorities. On this crucial economic file, the Conservatives now hold a significant advantage over the Liberals, 39% to 27%, when voters assess which party can best address rising costs.
The Conservatives also maintain leads on other economic priorities, leading 45% to 34% on economic management and dominating immigration issues 56% to 15%.
“After a spring and summer of stability in public opinion, we may be seeing signs of fluidity in federal politics,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “The Carney government still enjoys a solid approval rating… but public concern around affordability is persistent, and the Conservatives are clearly benefiting from that focus.”
The polling suggests domestic economic issues are taking precedence over international concerns. Former President Donald Trump’s role as a driving political factor has weakened, with 38% of Canadians now citing him as a major concern — down from 44% recorded earlier this summer.
Regional results show tight races across the country, with the Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied in British Columbia (43% to 42%) and Atlantic Canada (43% to 42%), while Liberals hold narrow leads in Ontario (46% to 44%) and Quebec (40% to 21%).
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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