Data Challenges Trump’s Case for Canada Tariffs
Data from US border authorities reveals a stark mismatch between Trump’s proposed tariff policy and the realities of cross-border challenges with Canada, as the former president threatens equal trade penalties against both US neighbors.
Border patrol statistics show Canadian drug trafficking represents a fraction of the volume seen at the Mexican border, with fentanyl seizures at just 43 pounds compared to Mexico’s 21,100 pounds between October 2023 and September 2024. Internal US and coastal seizures actually led all regions at 287,000 pounds.
The disparity extends beyond narcotics. While Mexican border authorities apprehended over 2.1 million people attempting illegal crossings, Canadian border stops numbered just under 199,000 — less than 10% of the southern total.
Despite these differences, Trump’s proposed 25% tariff would hit both countries equally, alongside a 10% levy on Chinese imports. The impact could be particularly severe for integrated North American supply chains, especially in energy markets where Canada provides 97% of its $117 billion annual crude oil exports to US refineries.
Trade analysts warn the tariffs would ripple through both economies. “The costs would be shared across the supply chain — US consumers, refineries, and Canadian producers would all feel the squeeze,” Rachel Ziemba, a geo-economic expert, told The Logic, calling the proposal “economic coercion.”
The Logic also points out that history offers a preview: when Trump imposed 25% steel tariffs in 2018, Canadian exports plunged 26% to $1.7 billion within a year, followed by another 14% drop in 2020. The industry only recovered after the 2021 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement took effect.
The latest threat comes as total Canadian exports to the US reach $263.5 billion annually, making any broad tariff action a potentially significant shock to North American trade flows.
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