Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives still hold the machinery of government in Ontario. The premier’s harder problem is that fewer voters appear willing to approve of how that power is being used.
Angus Reid Institute’s June 2026 premier approval tracker put Ford at 21%, down 10 points from the previous quarter and the lowest mark of his time as premier.
Ontario MPPs voted 57–28 on June 2 to adjourn the House until 10:15 a.m. on October 27, 2026, showing that Ford’s party still has the house. Despite legislature’s long break, committees can still meet, and some legislative work can continue outside the main chamber. But the political image is simple: at a moment when Ford’s approval has fallen to 21%, the most visible accountability forum at Queen’s Park is going quiet for nearly five months.
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That combination gives opponents a cleaner attack line than the calendar alone would provide. The break arrives when Ford’s public standing is weakest, when affordability remains a top voter concern, and when the government is already defending its spending choices.
The private-jet reversal sharpened that vulnerability. Documents from the premier’s office showed nearly $200,000 in aviation-related costs tied to Ontario’s purchase and return of a $28.9 million used Bombardier Challenger 650. Ford’s government had confirmed the purchase in April, then reversed course after public criticism and said the aircraft had been sold back to Bombardier for the same price.
Ford has rejected the broader polling narrative. Global News reported that he dismissed the “bogus” Angus Reid result and said his own numbers showed the PCs at 41% support, enough to win what he described as a massive majority if voters went to the polls immediately.
Angus Reid responded by defending its quarterly premier approval tracker and noting that Ford has previously ranked higher in the same survey series.
“While it is not surprising for a premier with a comparatively low approval rating to express unhappiness with the data, we note that Premier Ford has at times been among the most approved-of provincial leaders in the country based on data from this same quarterly survey. We note he did not express a problem with Angus Reid polling then,” the agency said.
The next pressure points are local. Caroline Mulroney resigned her York—Simcoe seat effective June 5, creating a confirmed vacancy in a riding held by a high-profile Progressive Conservative. Scarborough Southwest is also politically sensitive after Doly Begum left provincial politics to run federally. Reports and social-media posts have linked former Toronto budget chief Gary Crawford to the PC candidate search there, but this hasn’t been confirmed.
Ford’s problem, then, is not one poll in isolation. It is the way the poll changes the meaning of everything around it: a recess becomes avoidance, a jet reversal becomes entitlement, a vacancy becomes a stress test, and a candidate issue becomes a signal.
The premier still has the votes to govern. His approval number suggests he has less room to make governing look effortless.
