Germany is set for a snap election, scheduled for February 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government following a failed confidence vote on Monday. The election comes as opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservative alliance maintains a strong lead in polls and the economy faces stagnation.
Scholz’s formal defeat in a parliamentary confidence vote, with 394 against, 207 in favor and 116 abstentions, marks the latest step toward elections where seven major parties will compete for seats in the Bundestag.
Latest opinion polls show Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance at 32%, followed by the far-right AfD at 18% and Scholz’s Social Democrats at 16%. The Greens, led by Economics Minister Robert Habeck, stand at 14%.
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Merz, a former European Parliament member and BlackRock executive who returned to politics in 2021, has moved the CDU rightward from predecessor Angela Merkel’s centrist positions. He recently visited Kyiv, advocating for a “common vision” for peace in Ukraine ahead of US President-elect Trump’s arrival in office.
The German central bank has cut growth forecasts by 0.2%, predicting economic stagnation through early 2025. The automotive sector faces “structural” problems, with Volkswagen among manufacturers announcing layoffs.
Immigration has emerged as a key campaign issue following AfD’s regional election gains. The party’s chancellor candidate Alice Weidel has gained support through populist policies, particularly on migration. The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime has intensified debate in Germany, which accepted more Syrian refugees than any other European nation during the civil war.
Read: How the Far-Right AfD’s Historic Win Signals a Troubling Shift in Germany
While Merz appears likely to become chancellor, forming a stable coalition government remains uncertain. The CDU/CSU is expected to fall short of an outright majority in the 630-seat Bundestag, necessitating partnership with other parties, potentially including the SPD, Greens, Free Democrats, left-wing BSW, or Die Linke.
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