Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and central banks continue unprecedented buying sprees, according to predictions from major financial institutions.
Fidelity International‘s multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson said the firm expects gold to reach the milestone as the Fed moves to cushion the US economy with rate cuts, the dollar weakens, and central banks maintain elevated gold purchases.
“The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,” Samson said in an interview, adding that some funds had as much as doubled their 5% allocation over the past year.
Gold closed at $3,326 per ounce on July 29, up 38% from the same time last year. Inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty have driven the precious metal up over 25% since early 2025.
The prediction aligns with forecasts from other Wall Street giants. Goldman Sachs analysts now see gold rallying to $3,700 an ounce by the end of this year, with prices set to hit $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. JP Morgan Research projects an average $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025, climbing toward $4,000 by mid-2026.
Central bank demand has emerged as a key driver. Analysts expect central banks to purchase around 900 tonnes of gold in 2025, continuing a buying spree that began after authorities froze Russian assets in 2022 following the Ukraine invasion.
Trade tensions stemming from Trump administration policies, ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, plus sustained institutional demand from global central banks, have boosted the precious metal by more than 25% this year.
Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to deliver two rate cuts before the end of 2025, though officials may wait for evidence of labor market weakening before acting.
However, some analysts warn of potential headwinds. A strengthening dollar could pressure gold prices, while the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts may limit upside potential in the near term.
Others remain skeptical, including Citigroup Inc., which forecasts weaker prices ahead. Spot gold traded near $3,315 at the time of the Fidelity announcement.
Information for this story was found via Bloomberg, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
One Response
Give the GENIUS Act a few years to wreak havoc and the federal debt will balloon like a drowned cat in a canal. I never thought I’d say it, but gold at $3300 an ounce looks (relatively) affordable. I got back in this year after taking 2 years off from stacking. I refused to pay over $1800/oz..