Recent reforms spearheaded by Mexico’s President, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), are driving investors away, with industry insiders labeling the new regulations as unworkable. As anticipation mounts for a pivotal Supreme Court ruling that could potentially overturn these reforms, the mining industry finds itself at a critical juncture.
Introduced last May, the reforms mandate pre-consultation with local communities, rigorous impact studies, and substantial cash bonds for potential damages, posing significant challenges for junior explorers. Critics argue that these measures, alongside stringent water allowances and proposed bans on open-pit mining, stifle investment and hinder exploration efforts.
The repercussions of these reforms reverberate across borders, particularly affecting Canadian companies, which historically accounted for a substantial portion of Mexico’s mining investment. Figures from Mexico’s mining chamber, Camimex, indicate that Canadian firms contributed up to $8 billion in exploration spending and constituted 70% of foreign investment between 2012 and 2022.
Joe Mazumdar, a mining analyst at Exploration Insights, underscores the hardships faced by exploration-focused entities in Mexico, citing that “people with exploration assets in Mexico have a hard time getting funded.”
Mexico’s mining production, valued at $16.7 billion in 2021, now stands at a crossroads. Camimex projects that the reforms could precipitate a staggering $9 billion loss in investment and the elimination of 420,000 jobs, further exacerbating the industry’s woes.
The legal battleground surrounding these reforms is intensifying, with over 500 constitutional challenges filed against the law. The Supreme Court’s recent guidance offers a glimmer of hope for industry players, hinting at potential rollbacks and exemptions from the stringent regulations.
However, the looming uncertainty casts a shadow over Mexico-Canada economic ties, compelling several companies and investors to maintain a cautious stance.
The erosion of investor confidence in Mexico’s mining sector is a multifaceted issue. Fiscal reforms in 2013, coupled with the AMLO administration’s reluctance to grant new concessions, have led to a precipitous decline in exploration investment.
Moreover, the controversial stipulation granting exclusive exploration rights to the state underscores the precarious nature of mining investments in Mexico. The proposed ban on open-pit mining poses a threat to existing operations, with top producers like Grupo Mexico’s Buenavista del Cobre and Newmont’s Peñasquito facing potential disruptions. The contradictions within AMLO’s policies are glaring, as the apparent ban on open-pit mines conflicts with the nationalization of the lithium sector, which typically relies on similar mining methods.
As Mexico’s political landscape undergoes seismic shifts, the outcome of the upcoming election holds significant implications for the mining industry. While AMLO’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is poised to continue his hardline stance, speculation abounds regarding potential shifts in approach post-election.
Despite the challenges, Camimex remains steadfast in its commitment to collaboration, expressing readiness to engage with the incoming government to navigate the complexities of Mexico’s mining sector.
“We are currently working with the authorities to build communication bridges that allow them to learn about the best practices that the industry has,” the firm said in a statement.
Information for this briefing was found via The Northern Miner and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
