In a week marked by renewed attention on U.S. energy policy, a debate has emerged over whether potential tariffs on Canadian oil could serve the interests of certain members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Saudi Arabia.
A recent post from energy commentator Christine Guerrero, who goes by the handle @SheDrills, posited what she termed a “radical conspiracy theory,” suggesting that U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude might indirectly benefit Saudi Arabia by boosting OPEC’s share of U.S. imports.
At the same time, Bloomberg’s business news feed reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman assured U.S. President Donald Trump of plans to expand Saudi-U.S. trade by as much as $600 billion, fueling further speculation about potential shifts in the global oil trade.
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Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, released in its Monthly Energy Review, shows that total U.S. petroleum imports peaked above 13 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s before gradually declining. OPEC imports, which once formed the bulk of U.S. foreign oil supply during the 1970s and early 1980s, have since dropped significantly.
Concurrently, crude from Canada has risen steadily, particularly over the last two decades, reflecting improvements in extraction technologies and strengthening trade ties between Ottawa and Washington.
Canadian heavy crude, especially from the oil sands of Alberta, became an increasingly important component of U.S. supply. The EIA’s data indicates that as OPEC imports declined to roughly half their late-1970s peak, Canadian imports climbed from below 1 million bpd in the 1990s to more than 4 million bpd in recent years. This trend has intensified competition in the U.S. market, with refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast often relying on Canadian feedstock due to favorable pricing.
Although no formal proposal has been made public, the suggestion puts forth that any hypothetical tariff on Canadian crude might serve as “the swiftest way for [the U.S.] to meaningfully reduce the deficit,” while favoring imports from OPEC countries.
“Some Canadian crude would likely get stranded in favor of OPEC imports as it improves their margins,” Guerrero wrote on her X account. She also claimed that Saudi Arabia, in particular, would be “a huge beneficiary and very grateful.”
As of Wednesday, the White House has not announced new tariffs on Canadian crude but has made it public that the economic policy might be effective starting February 1. Asked about the rumor in a press briefing yesterday, White House Press Secretary Jane Smith told reporters, “We have no official announcements regarding any tariffs on Canadian oil at this time. Our administration remains committed to robust trade relations with Canada and to ensuring energy security for Americans.”
Meanwhile, a Reuters article published late Tuesday corroborated the absence of any formal proposal under consideration. Citing unnamed officials within the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, the report concluded that while the idea of targeting Canadian heavy crude has been floated in some policy circles, there is “no current plan” to move forward with such a measure.
Any potential tariff would have significant implications for oil markets. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude to the United States, and increased duties could strain bilateral relations while boosting demand for alternative sources. For OPEC nations—particularly those in the Persian Gulf—this scenario could open the door to capturing a larger slice of the U.S. import market.
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