Is US Housing Heading For A Crash As FHA Ends Pandemic-Era Protections?
The US housing market may be shifting once again as federal agencies phase out pandemic-era protections that have propped up millions of distressed homeowners. With the expiration of key Federal Housing Administration loss mitigation programs now confirmed, concerns are rising about the long-term stability of the market—and whether a crash may be on the horizon.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development issued a Mortgagee Letter which permanently sunsets several COVID-19-related foreclosure and forbearance protections. The sunset date is set for September 30, 2025, marking the formal end of the COVID-19 Recovery Loss Mitigation Options, FHA-Home Affordable Modification Program, Standard Pre-Foreclosure Sale, and Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure programs.
The move comes amid revelations that the U.S. government has allegedly kept over 7 million homes off the market using taxpayer dollars. If accurate, this figure could suggest an artificial tightening of housing supply that has helped buoy home prices.
The Mortgagee Letter also includes other impactful provisions, including:
- Accelerating the effective date of new permanent loss mitigation options to October 1, 2025 (from February 2026).
- Extending the required time before a borrower can seek a second permanent loss mitigation option from 18 to 24 months.
- Canceling scheduled increases in financial incentives for borrowers under foreclosure alternatives like Cash for Keys and Deed-in-Lieu arrangements.
The FHA’s updated policies will be incorporated into the forthcoming revision of the HUD Handbook. But analysts warn that the real impact will be in foreclosure rates, housing supply, and price corrections that may follow as millions of previously protected homes begin to re-enter the market.
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