Ken Paxton’s private explanation for his unexpectedly difficult US Senate race puts a politically sensitive price tag on the Iran war: the Trump-backed Republican says fuel costs and affordability, rather than tariffs, are weighing on his campaign as President Donald Trump returns to Texas to help defend the seat.
Axios reported Wednesday that Paxton made the comments at a closed-door Washington fundraiser last month attended by donors and lobbyists. The outlet obtained audio from a person who attended the meeting and opposes Paxton.
Asked what was dragging on the campaign, Paxton pointed to “the war,” gasoline, and diesel. He later called affordability “by far our biggest problem” and said he did not control fuel prices or the conflict.
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“I don’t make the decisions,” he said, according to Axios.
Paxton’s campaign told Axios the comments were a “non-story,” arguing that Texans already know gasoline and diesel prices are high. The campaign said Trump was working to lower prices and that Paxton would pursue policies aimed at putting more money in families’ pockets.
Fuel prices support the broader affordability concern, though Paxton’s reference to diesel above $6 should not be read as the current Texas statewide average. AAA listed US diesel at $6.3015 per gallon on October 7, compared with $5.7248 in Texas. Regular gasoline averaged $4.3667 nationally and $3.8904 in Texas.
The US Energy Information Administration separately put nationwide on-highway diesel at $6.199 per gallon for the week ended October 5.
Paxton has already made tax relief central to his economic agenda. His proposals include a $25,000 deduction for out-of-pocket medical expenses, a $50,000 deduction for first-time homebuyers, and an increase in the child tax credit to as much as $4,400 per child, according to The Texas Tribune.
The disclosure comes as Trump prepares to campaign with Paxton in San Antonio on Wednesday, his third Texas visit in a month. Reuters reported that a Siena College poll released October 3 showed Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters. Trump carried Texas by 14 points in 2024.
A Reuters review of 62 competitive congressional races found 41 Republican candidates had broken with Trump on policy or played down their ties to him. In 12 races, the split involved the Iran conflict, including calls to end the fighting or curb Trump’s war powers.
Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Reuters previously reported that MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, planned to spend at least $10 million supporting Paxton.
