Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has issued a sharp warning that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are colliding with economic and political realities, with no major trade deals materializing despite grandiose claims.
In an article post to Substack, Krugman criticized Trump’s persistent narrative that tariffs will coerce countries into better terms, calling it “a fantasy of dominance” detached from actual outcomes.
“Most countries aren’t treating us unfairly, and trade negotiations are going badly if they’re happening at all,” Krugman observed, pointing to ongoing denials from China that talks are even underway and to Japan’s withdrawal from discussions over the administration’s erratic demands, including false allegations about vehicle safety tests.
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Krugman stressed that Trump’s claims—such as having made “200 deals”—are wholly unsubstantiated, further illustrating the administration’s “long history of fantasies and delusions of grandeur.”
The New York Times columnist, a leading voice in global economic analysis, further argued that Trump’s trade strategy is emblematic of broader failures, noting that recent polling shows Trump “has no strengths left,” even on his former signature issues of the economy and immigration.
“Trump hitting the wall this early is a good thing for the survival of US democracy,” Krugman emphasized.
However, Krugman warned that despite these setbacks, the US system lacks an immediate mechanism for removing an ineffective president, unlike parliamentary systems.
“Impeachment won’t happen,” he stated bluntly, citing deep-seated corruption within the Republican Party. With 1,364 days left in Trump’s term, Krugman concluded, the critical question is how much further damage could be inflicted—and what can be done now to limit it.
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