The big change in the new polling is not the national spread. It’s Alberta.
In a recent 338Canada poll, Liberals widened the lead at 47.5% nationally against 27.0% for the Conservatives and 15.1% for the NDP. However, the real jolt is an Alberta regional result of 41% Liberal to 37% Conservative, a four-point Liberal edge in the province that has long anchored federal Conservative strength.
The same polling puts the Liberals at 45% in British Columbia, 47% in Ontario, 49% in Quebec, and 65% in Atlantic Canada. The base is listed as Canadians surveyed March 5 to 15, 2026.
The broader trend line points the same way. Nanos reported on Tuesday that the Liberals had reached 47.6%, the Conservatives 31.1%, and the NDP 11.2%, calling it an all-time high for Liberal support in its tracking. The same Nanos release put Mark Carney at 56.5% on preferred prime minister versus 22.0% for Pierre Poilievre.
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Abacus also showed the gap widening. Its recent tracker, surveyed from March 4 to 11, found the Liberals holding an 11-point national lead over the Conservatives, which it said was the party’s largest advantage in Abacus tracking since August 2021. Abacus added that approval of the federal government had reached a new high since Carney took office.
Why Alberta matters
An Alberta Liberal lead does more than pad a national popular vote; it threatens the Conservatives’ seat efficiency. The Writ noted in late February that Alberta was one of the places seeing the most dramatic movement and said the shift could put as many as a dozen seats, or potentially more, into Liberal contention if the numbers prove durable.
The chart’s regional breakdown shows exactly that squeeze. If Alberta is no longer a firewall, there is no obvious regional counterweight left in the numbers provided.
That has value with parliamentary math already tight. Liberals currently hold 170 seats in the House of Commons and needed 172 for a majority. Three by-elections are scheduled for April 13 in Scarborough Southwest, University–Rosedale, and Terrebonne, with two ridings in Toronto-area Liberal terrain while Terrebonne is the swing seat.
A national environment where the Liberals are dominating Quebec and suddenly competitive in Alberta makes the path to majority look materially easier.
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