The Federal Reserve is believed to be weighing the possibility of a larger-than-usual interest rate cut at its upcoming September 17-18 meeting, as market expectations shift dramatically towards more aggressive action.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis-point reduction has surged to 59%, up from just 30% a week ago. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a more conventional 25-basis-point cut now stands at 41%. This significant shift in market sentiment reflects growing concerns about economic conditions and anticipation of a potentially bolder move by the Fed.
This shift in market sentiment comes as traders bet on the Fed potentially moving to preempt further deterioration in the labor market. Recent economic data has fueled concerns that the Fed may be falling behind in protecting employment, echoing criticisms of its delayed response to rising inflation in 2021.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last month that rate cuts were imminent, saying “the time has come” to ease monetary policy. Other policymakers, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Chris Waller, have expressed support for potential front-loading of rate cuts if conditions warrant.
The case for a more substantial rate cut has been bolstered by recent employment data. July’s report showed a rise in the jobless rate to 4.3% and weaker-than-expected job growth, which was later revised down further. While August saw unemployment ease to 4.2%, job growth has slowed considerably, averaging just 116,000 new positions monthly since June.
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