So, I was catching up on some cinema recently—specifically the new biopic where Sydney Sweeney plays the fighter, Christy Martin. It’s… a choice. It bombed.
Why? Because when people pay to see Sydney Sweeney, they want the glamour. They want “hot.” It’s like going to see Jim Carrey and he doesn’t talk with his butt cheeks. You feel cheated! Sometimes, you have something great, and you just find a way to screw it up by doing something stupid.
Which brings us to Newmont’s (NYSE: NEM) Q4 2025 earnings.
On paper, the year ended strong. Natascha Viljoen, Newmont’s CEO, stepped to the mic with the usual corporate word salad.
“The fourth quarter of 2025 marked a strong finish to a year of continued progress at Newmont. We achieved our full-year guidance, improved our operational performance, and strengthened our financial position, reflecting disciplined execution across the business.”
Standard major producer stuff. Boring? Yes. But at first, the market was fine with it. Investors like boring when the gold price is cooperating. Observers watched in real-time as the stock began tanking mid-presentation. [show tweets.
The pivot point comes down to two specific disclosures.
Here is the first:
“2026 represents a trough in our production cycle due to planned mine sequencing across several operations as we position the portfolio to return to production growth in 2027 and beyond.”
Translation: Production is expected to decline rather than grow. Negative operational growth. But it gets worse—costs are headed higher. And then… there was this:
“We have issued a notice of default to our joint venture partner related to operational performance and management of Nevada Gold Mines. We do not have any additional information to share at this time and confidentiality provisions in the joint venture agreement prevent further comment.”
Wait, what? You just picked a fight with your biggest partner over a project that accounts for roughly 17% of your total output – nearly a million ounces. It’s the ultimate “shooting yourself in the foot” moment. You had a decent earnings report, and you decided to turn it into a legal drama.
Anyways, let’s dive in.
Information for this briefing was found via the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
One Response
The analogy at the start is genuinely hilarious but also spot on. Newmont had a solid quarter and then essentially dropped a grenade on their own press release with that Nevada JV default notice. The “trough year” framing for 2026 was already a tough sell, but pairing it with a legal dispute against Barrick over 17% of output is just wild timing. I think the market reaction makes total sense honestly. Really sharp breakdown of the earnings, the way you connected the cinema analogy to the corporate stumble made it genuinely enjoyable to read.