Ontario’s mortgage arrears rose by about half in a year, and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation expects them to keep climbing through mid-2027.
The share of Ontario mortgages 90 days or more past due rose from 0.21% to 0.32% between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026, according to the agency’s Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report, released on October 27. British Columbia’s rate rose from 0.20% to 0.26%, Alberta’s from 0.26% to 0.27% and Quebec’s from 0.18% to 0.19%.
CMHC forecasts Ontario’s rate at about 0.44% by June 2027, the largest and longest increase of any region it tracks, while British Columbia and Atlantic Canada face moderate upward pressure and other provinces stay broadly stable. The agency ties Ontario’s path to its exposure to US tariffs, rising unemployment and softer home prices.
Toronto is the most exposed city, with its rate climbing from 0.24% to 0.33%. Other cities rose too, with London up from 0.18% to 0.27%, Windsor from 0.17% to 0.26% and Vancouver from 0.17% to 0.24%. Regina and Edmonton improved.
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The sharpest stress sits with private lenders known as mortgage investment entities, whose national arrears rose from 1.83% to 2.57%, against 0.28% at chartered banks. Late in 2023, 3.0% of these lenders’ Greater Toronto and Hamilton balances were 90 days or more behind. By early 2026, the share had reached 11.1%, against 3.8% in the rest of Canada.
Their regional lending is riskier too. Interest-only loans make up 69.7% of balances, uninsured balances above 80% of a home’s value make up 9.2% (up from 1.6% in early 2024), and 29% belong to borrowers spending more than 60% of their income on debt payments. Lenders hold only 1.8% of Canada’s mortgage balances, but CMHC says arrears may signal wider stress early.
Bankruptcies per 1,000 mortgage holders rose from 0.53 to 0.66, about 25%, while consumer bankruptcies were about 5%, and delinquency climbed on auto loans (2.28% to 2.51%), credit cards (1.78% to 1.91%) and credit lines (0.92% to 1.05%). Borrowers are also shifting terms. Variable-rate mortgages made up 36% of new terms in June, up from 29% a year earlier, while fixed terms of five years or longer fell from 20% to 10%.
CMHC says the stress remains contained nationally. “Canada is not facing a broad mortgage crisis,” Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth said, though signs in parts of Ontario need close monitoring. Arrears remain below historical peaks from the past 30 years, and the largest renewal shock has probably passed.
