The Canadian housing market displayed mixed trends in September, according to the latest report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The six-month trend in housing starts has decreased by 1.3% from August to September, settling at 243,759 units. This trend measure represents a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts across Canada.
Despite the downward trend, the monthly SAAR of total housing starts for September has increased by 5% compared to August, reaching 223,808 units. Urban centers with populations of 10,000 or more are primarily driving this growth, where housing starts have risen by 6% to 210,002 units. Both multi-unit and single-detached urban starts have seen increases of 6% and 5%, respectively.
Year-to-date figures reveal a 2% increase in actual housing starts from January to September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Higher multi-unit and single-detached units in Alberta, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces are largely fueling this growth. However, Ontario and British Columbia are experiencing decreases across all housing types.
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CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Kevin Hughes, notes that despite the September increase, housing starts remain “well below what is required to restore affordability in Canada’s urban centres.”
Regional variations are significant. Montreal is showing a 15% increase in year-to-date starts compared to 2023, indicating a recovery from historically low construction levels. Conversely, Vancouver and Toronto are seeing declines of 19% and 20% respectively, although these figures are measured against record-high years in 2023.
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