Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s embrace of Trump-style rhetoric and policies is creating unexpected headwinds in Alberta, traditionally Canada’s most reliable Conservative stronghold, according to recent polling data and observations from a major rally earlier this week.
At a massive rally in Nisku, Alberta on Monday night that drew approximately 12,000 supporters — described by local media as the largest of the campaign — Poilievre’s message to voters appeared to resonate strongly inside the venue. However, interviews with attendees revealed mixed feelings about comparisons to former US President Donald Trump.
“He wore a blazer over his Conservative-branded t-shirt,” reported the National Observer about Brock, a 19-year-old psychology student at the University of Alberta attending the rally. While supportive of Poilievre, he told reporters he gave Trudeau credit for trying to represent the country and didn’t think Poilievre should worry about being compared to Trump.
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The latest Angus Reid Institute poll released on April 7 showed that while Poilievre maintains strong support in the Prairies compared to other regions, a significant 60% of Canadians view him unfavorably — the highest negative rating since he assumed leadership in September 2022.
The poll also indicated that if an election were held today, the Liberals would lead by 11 points over the Conservatives in British Columbia and 16 points in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province.
During the Nisku rally, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper made what observers called a rare campaign appearance to endorse Poilievre. While Harper has endorsed previous Conservative leaders, the National Observer noted he had never actively campaigned for them before.
The Conservative leader’s rhetoric on crime, immigration, and government spending sounds similar to Trump’s approach, with Poilievre promising to “axe the taxes” and “lock up the criminals” during his Alberta speech.
Political observers note that even in Alberta, where Conservatives typically dominate federal elections, Trump-style politics may have limits. According to the Angus Reid data, Conservative support in Alberta now stands at 54%, still leading by a wide margin but down two points from the previous poll. The party is also seeing stronger challenges in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where traditional Conservative strongholds are showing signs of vulnerability.
Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains significantly higher personal favorability ratings than Poilievre nationally. According to the Angus Reid poll conducted April 4-7 with 2,184 respondents, 50% of Canadians believe Carney would make the better prime minister, compared to just 28% for Poilievre.
The same poll shows that within Alberta specifically, 40% of respondents preferred Poilievre as prime minister compared to 39% for Carney, the only province besides Saskatchewan where the Conservative leader holds an edge. However, this is a narrower margin than typically seen for Conservative leaders in the province.
The irony of Poilievre’s position, some suggest, is that the very qualities that propelled him to the Conservative leadership may now be hindering his broader appeal as Canadians prepare to head to the polls.
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