A new poll shows Conservatives ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals by one percentage point, marking a shift in public opinion as the Liberal government approaches a parliamentary majority through Conservative defections.
The Mainstreet Research survey conducted December 7-12 found 42% of decided and leaning voters support the Conservatives, compared to 41% for the Liberals. The poll of 1,098 adults carries a margin of error of plus or minus percentage points.
The results contrast with an Ipsos poll released Tuesday that placed Liberals at 40% and Conservatives at 37%. An Abacus Data survey from the same period showed both parties tied.
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Ontario Conservative MP Michael Ma crossed the floor to join the Liberals on December 11, bringing the party to 171 seats in the House of Commons. The Liberals need 172 seats for a majority government. Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont made a similar move in November.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre criticized the floor-crossings in an interview Friday with The Canadian Press.
“He’s trying to manipulate and engineer for himself a majority that Canadians denied him in democratic elections,” Poilievre said of Carney. “We need the will of the Canadian people to be respected.”
Ma stated in his announcement that he believes Carney offers “the steady, practical approach we need to deliver on the priorities I hear every day while door knocking in Markham—Unionville.”
The Conservatives now hold 142 seats, while the Bloc Québécois has 22, the New Democratic Party has seven, and the Green Party has one.
Carney’s Liberals won a minority government in the April 28 election, securing 169 seats after judicial recounts. The election marked a dramatic reversal from pre-election polling that had shown Conservatives leading by double digits for months.
Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon told reporters Friday that other Conservative MPs have expressed frustration with their party’s direction to Liberal colleagues.
Poilievre faces a leadership review at the Conservative Party convention in Calgary in late January.
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